Maharashtra Assembly Elections: Allies still, BJP, Sena keep options open

The Sena, which accounts for 63 seats, had been the bigger partner in the coalition until 2014, when both parties ended the 25-year-old alliance on the eve of the last Assembly polls. The Sena wanted to contest a minimum of 150 seats, while the BJP wanted the alliance member to climb down. According to sources in the BJP, many senior leaders — both in the state and at the national level —“strongly believe” that the party is in a position to form a government on its own if it goes solo in the Assembly polls.

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Last week, BJP general secretary in charge of Maharashtra, Saroj Pandey, had told The Indian Express that the party is preparing to contest on all seats although it wants the alliance to continue. “We work in 288 constituencies and move as if our fight is in (all) 288 seats,” she had said. “In fact, our efforts on seats won by the Sena (in 2014) are such that we can fight and win there also. That’s how our preparations are.”

On Tuesday, Sena’s Parliamentary Party leader Sanjay Raut told The Indian Express that BJP president Amit Shah and Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray had reached an understanding before the Lok Sabha polls that the two parties will contest 135 Assembly seats each and leave the remaining 18 to smaller parties.

“There have been no formal talks between us on the issue, but we believe this understanding holds,” Raut said.

But like the BJP, the Sena is also gearing up for the possibility of having to contest all seats on its own, sources in the party said. Sources said they were caught unprepared in 2014, as the party leadership never imagined that the BJP would call off seat-sharing talks and fight the elections alone. “We neither had our election machinery in place, nor enough winning candidates to put up a fight,” a Sena insider said. “(Even then) we managed to perform better than expected. This time, we are ready for any eventuality.”

An implementation of the 50:50 formula implies that the BJP will not be in a commanding position after the elections even if its strike rate is better. The party has to contest on at least 160 seats to get an upper hand and keep the Sena under check.

The question being asked in political circles, thus, is whether Sena would accept a scale-back on the promised equal share and agree to contest around 110 seats.

Sources in BJP, however, said party chief Amit Shah does not seem to be in a mood to break ties with the Sena. Shah is learnt to have given enough indication to the BJP’s state unit that both parties would fight the polls together.

Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis had said as much earlier this month, during the BJP’s Mahajanadesh Yatra. While maintaining that both parties will retain the seats each had won in 2014, Fadnavis had said, “After setting aside a few seats for smaller allies, Sena and BJP will equally divide remaining seats.”