Bihar polls: In changing equations for Yadav belt, growing BJP and unknown Pappu

Murho, centre-stage of the Yadav-dominated politics around the Kosi belt, comprising Supaul, Madhepura and Saharsa districts, is now at a crossroads with the BJP emerging a possible alternative after the NDA split. And Pappu Yadav’s exit from the RJD has upset the calculations of the Congress-RJD-JD(U) alliance in this belt as well as the adjacent Muslim-dominated Seemanchal of Araria, Purnea, Katihar and Kishanganj.

These two regions, comprising 37 assembly seats, are where Pappu Yadav is hoping to score with his new party. The region is traditionally a weak spot for the NDA. In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP could not win any of the seven seats in Kosi and Seemanchal. Of the 13 assembly seats in the Kosi belt, the NDA holds only Saharsa.

Murho itself is going through an upheaval. B P Mandal’s grandson, Anand Mandal, has been with the BJP for some years now. The leader’s third son, Anand’s uncle Manindra Kumar Mandal or Om Babu, is a former JD(U) MLA from Madhepura MLA now unhappy with the party. And JD(U) president Sharad Yadav, who dominated Kosi politics for a long time, has tied up with the RJD’s Lalu Prasad.

Murho with its 1,100 voters can be said to represent the divide in the Yadav camp. Political allegiances within B P Mandal’s family are split between BJP and the Congress alliance. Among Yadav voters, there have been indications that many will stay true to Lalu although neither he nor Nitish has done anything in particular for the famous village. Lalu has not visited for years.

“The BJP was almost a nonentity until the NDA split,” Anand Mandal admits, “but it has become the principal opponent and the nucleus of anti-Lalu politics. With the BJP likely to field Yadavs, and with upper castes, Dalits and a chunk of EBCs looking to side with the BJP, Kosi can bring happy surprises.”

Ask anyone about Pappu Yadav and the answer veers around the Madhepura MP proving a “vote katwa” between the NDA and Congress-RJD-JD(U) alliance. Since Pappu met PM Narendra Modi and Home Minister Rajnath Singh, there has been speculation about a possible tie-up or a friendly fight in Seemanchal and Kosi. Sources hinted he has set a “deadline” for the BJP on his offer to become a fourth NDA alliance partner.

Until then, voters in Saharsa look at him as little more than a spolier. They discuss how Pappu was “nothing” without Lalu, although they cannot hide how popular he is.

“Pappu Yadav had certainly offered us a choice but he could end up being a spoiler for the non-NDA alliance. Though his candidates may not win elections, they can snatch a percentage of the Yadav votes,” said Rajesh Yadav of Madhepura.

Shashi Bhushan Yadav, a graduate working with a private company, said Pappu would not be a big factor in Kosi.
Hari Yadav of Chandour village said, “Though we are upset with Nitish Kumar for pampering EBCs and Mahadalits, we will support him because of Lalu.” Hari, who runs a flour mill, said they have been supporting Nitish in the hope that “Lalu raj will return”. Ramlakhan Yadav, also of Chandour, said, “I don’t have even a ration card but will still vote for Lalu-Nitish.”

But several Yadav youths who turned up at PM Narendra Modi’s Saharsa rally said most educated Yadavs have had enough of Lalu’s brand of Yadav politics. “If the BJP gives our caste a fair representation, Modi is our choice. We have an alternative now and want to see how it works,” said Umesh Yadav of Saharsa. Ravikant, also a Yadav youth, added Pappu is a household name and has the potential to split Yadav votes — in favour of NDA.

Many EBC voters, long overshadowed by the Yadavs, too see the BJP as an alternative. “We want the BJP’s polling agents to ensure there is no deliberate slow polling in Yadav villages. If the poll is fare, we can see EBCs, Dalits and upper castes consolidate in the NDA favour,” said Ravi, an EBC from Saur Bazar of Saharsa.