In Bihar Sharif, Nitish’s grand alliance faces JD(U), RJD rebels — and fears ahead of festivals

Confident that community calculations work in its favour, the grand alliance is worried that any tension and resultant polarsiation can benefit only the BJP. The JD(U) candidate is Mohd Asghar Shamim, a longtime Nitish aide. The sitting JD(U) MLA, Dr Sunil Kumar, has joined the BJP, which has fielded him in a deviation from its usual strategy. In most other constituencies with a high Muslim population, it has preferred to let its allies contest. Here, it is looking at a consolidation of the Hindu vote and a split of the Muslim vote — Pappu Yadav’s candidate too is a Muslim, a former RJD MLA’s wife.

“We are concerned and praying Dussehra and Muharram pass peacefully,’’ said Mohd Sultan Ansari, a local JD(U) leader and part of the party’s state advisory committee. “There was an attempt to create tension during Ganesh Puja; provocative slogans were raised. We put this up before the peace committee and immediate action prevented a clash, which would have hurt us the most.”

On October 25, when a Muharram procession goes out on the main roads, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a rally scheduled in Bihar Sharif. “We are hopeful the administration will take extra care,” Ansari said.

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He said the maha gathbandhan has support across communities. “Muslims, Yadavs, Kurmis, a large section of Koeris and extremely backwards are with us. Because of the work Nitishji has done across Bihar, we also have support among the Vaish community who are otherwise seen as BJP supporters,” he said. “If you look only at caste arithmetic, the BJP has no chance.”

This, he said, has made the BJP nervous. “Union ministers Griraj Singh and Ram Kripal Yadav are camping in a hotel in Rajgir and making every effort to prevent our victory.”

The constituency is one of Bihar’s largest with 3.35 lakh voters. After Muslims, Vaish and Kurmi are the next largest groups, followed by Koeri and Yadav.

The BJP’s new candidate has given the seat to the JD(U) three times. “I left medical practice in 1995 and joined politics because things were really bad during Lalu Prasad’s rule,” Dr Sunil Kumar said. In 2000, he lost as an independent but grabbed attention by bagging 41,000 votes. “Nitish came to my home and invited me to the JD(U),’’ he said. Asked why he has left Nitish now, he said he decided to leave “the moment the party broke its alliance with the BJP”.

In February 2005, Dr Kumar defeated then sitting RJD MLA Naushad-un-Nabi a.k.a. Pappu Khan, then beat him again in October that year. In 2010, after Khan had been jailed in a murder case, the RJD fielded his wife Aafrin Sultana who, too, lost to Dr Kumar.

When the JD(U)-RJD fielded Shamim, Aafrin and her husband (now out on bail) joined Pappu Yadav’s JAP, which has given the ticket to Aafrin. “There are two Muslim candidates and we think it will split the vote,’’ said Dilip Kumar, a BJP youth leader. “Pappu Yadav’s Muslim candidate is here only to help the BJP,” said Mohd Arshad of the JD(U).

JD(U) candidate Shamim is a law graduate from Aligarh Muslim University and has been in politics for 35 years. He quit the Congress in 1989 after the Bhagalpur riots. “I have spent my political life here,” he told The Indian Express. Addressing residents of Anand Nagar Colony, he said, “Some people would tell you I am a Muslim candidate. Please pay no attention. I belong to every community and my life is testimony to that.”

Anant Kumar Ranjan of Anand Nagar said every vote for the maha gathbandhan will be a vote for Nitish.

“People may even not know the candidate but we are voting for Nitishji,’’ he said. “Ten years ago, I would take three or four hours to reach office. Now I get there in an hour after Nitishji made a road,’’ he said.

On the other side of Bihar Sharif town is the BJP’s election office in a shopping complex owned by Dr Kumar. He also owns Kisan Cinema. “The public here think I am a Hindu leader and that’s where I get my support,” he said. “That even when I was a JD(U) candidate, Muslims would never vote for me… But as a doctor, I used to treat people free, and people remember that. I will face no problem. The BJP is supporting me in every manner but I have my own base too.”

Doesn’t the caste complexion of the constituency appear to be against him? “Let’s see what happens,” he said, hoping Modi’s rally will help bolster support for him.

At Bhaisasur Chowk, Rajiv Ranjan, a businessman, was admiring a Dussehra pandal. “Dr Sunil Kumar used to win because he was with the JD(U)-BJP. He had the support of his own Vaish community, he had Kurmis and Koeris, but won only by 24,000 votes against the RJD’s Muslim candidate,” Ranjan said. “This time, unless the BJP is able to breach the caste divide, it cannot win.”