The India Meteorological Department (IMD) Monday forecast above-normal rainfall during July that could lead to urban flooding and breaches in river basins. The Met department said that Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will receive heavy rain. The June-September southwest monsoon brings almost 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. It is crucial to India’s economy — enabling agricultural activities including kharif sowing, and recharging groundwater and reservoirs. During these four months, the highest rainfall usually occurs in July (long period average of 280.4 mm). This year’s July rainfall will be 106 per cent of the long period average. “Most regions of the country will receive normal to above normal rainfall in July, except northeast and some neighbouring areas in eastern India, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Jammu and Kashmir and pockets of north Gujarat,” said IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Monday. Similar to its preceding month, July could experience above-normal low-pressure system days that could potentially cause widespread rainfall over large areas. Normally, five low pressure systems develop in July. Along with these low-pressure systems, if the monsoon trough remains to the south of its normal position, it can lead to enhanced rain over the southern peninsula, the central region and the west coast, IMD officials said. Wind interacting with passing westerly air streams could trigger rainfall over the hilly terrains of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, and the neighbouring areas of Haryana and Delhi. “River basins will need to be monitored and special care should be taken every time the IMD forecasts the formation of a low pressure system, and these are predicted in advance,” urged the IMD chief. With above-normal rainfall forecast in July, both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to remain below normal, except in the northeast and furthermost southern regions. This year, the southwest monsoon covered the entire country in June itself, nine days ahead of its normal date of July 8. This is only the tenth time this has happened since 1960.
