Dry spell, no strong systems, weak conditions: IMD predicts below-normal monsoon for Telangana in June

“The overall monsoon scenario for Telangana for June could be near normal. In July, we are expecting a lot of rainfall,” a scientist at IMD’s Hyderabad centre told indianexpress.com.

According to the IMD’s daily bulletin, thunderstorms accompanied by lightning are very likely over isolated parts in Bhadradri Kothagudem, Khammam, Nalgonda, Suryapet, Mahbubabad, Rangareddy, Medchal Malkajgiri, Vikarabad, Sangareddy, Medak, Kamareddy, Mahabubnagar, Nagarkurnool, Narayanpet, Jogulamba Gadwal, and Hyderabad.

The IMD scientist said that Telangana’s northeastern districts will receive copious rain on Wednesday, and southern regions will receive similar rain on Thursday. “It will be continuous rainfall, but not a lot. After June 14, we can expect very little rainfall. There is no system formation, and it is normal monsoon rains,” the scientist added.

According to the Telangana Development Planning Society (TGDPS), which has over 1000 automated weather stations across the state, the highest rainfall of 68.5 mm received Monday was recorded at Kubeer in Nirmal district and Madnur in Kamareddy. Narsapur (G), Adilabad (Urban) and Ichoda also recorded rainfall of over 60 mm. In terms of district-wise average rainfall, Kamareddy, Jagtial, and Nizamabad districts recorded the highest of 39.7 mm, 30.5 mm, and 24.4 mm, respectively.

Dr Y V Rama Rao, Consultant Meteorologist, TGDPS, said that overall monsoon for June is likely to be below normal. “After the monsoon onset, systems have moved northwards, and the monsoon has become weak. A monsoon surge is developing in the Arabian Sea from June 11 onwards, and that should give some rainfall and some low pressure is forming on the Andhra coast, which is also very weak and after June 14 it is moving northwards,” said Dr Rao, and pointed out that in the absence of any major low-pressure systems or depressions, more rain cannot be expected.

Adding that the overall monsoon for June will be weak for June, he said, “We have had 10 days with no rainfall. We are not expecting heavy or extreme rainfall in the next four or five days. It will be an overall normal to below normal.”

Another reason, he added, is the global weather phenomenon called El Niño, which is not supporting monsoon activity over the region.