Rajasthan elections: : Even without any prominent face, here’s why Jats can play kingmakers

With just a month left for state polls, the ruling BJP knows that it needs to secure the Jat vote again, as it did in 2013 and won 163 seats.

On the other hand, opposition Congress is hoping that the Jats, who have traditionally voted for them, will return to it after a gap of five years and help it win a landslide victory.

Brijendra Singh Ola, Congress MLA from Jhunjhunu and son of late Jat politician from Congress Sis Ram Ola, says he is certain that the Jats will vote for the party. “Jats have always voted for the Congress, ever since the party gave land rights to farmers by bringing a law in 1954 for the protection of tenants. Jats are mostly part of farming community in the state and prior to this law they were exploited by wealthy landowners and jagirdaars,” says Ola.

During the initial years after independence, presence of influential Jat leaders in the Congress, such as Nathu Ram Mirdha, Ramniwas Mirdha, Kumbha Ram Arya and Sis Ram Ola, made the party a favourite of the community.

“After the Emergency and alliances during Janata Party regime, farmer communities, including Jats, went against Congress. The community started supporting BJP after then PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee announced that Jats will be included in the OBC category,” said Satish Poonia, co-convener of BJP election management committee. “Another reason owing to which the Congress faced the wrath of the community was that prominent Jat leaders weren’t given top posts in the government,” he added.

Senior Congress leaders in Rajasthan believe that the 1998 Assembly polls was a defining moment for Jat politics and also the time when things soured between the grand old party and the community. “Jats voted for Congress in 1998 and helped the party win 150 seats with the hope that Parasram Maderna, a popular Jat leader, will be made the chief minister. But the CM’s post ultimately went to Ashok Gehlot,” said a senior Congress leader.

Five years later, Jats switched sides to the BJP and voted against the Gehlot government in 2003, reducing the Congress from 150 to 56 seats. BJP won 120 seats and Vasundhara Raje, often projected as a “daughter-in-law of Jats”, went on to become the chief minister.

Politicians say the new generation of Jat leaders have failed to match up to their predecessors, resulting in a leadership vacuum.

“Rajasthan has not seen leaders such as the two Mirdhas or Maderna and the next generation Jat leaders couldn’t appropriate their legacies. Although there are individual faces such as Congress’s Rameshwar Dudi, Leader of Opposition in Assembly, or Jat MLAs in BJP, the community doesn’t have a mass leader today,” said a senior BJP leader.

According to leaders from both Congress and BJP, Jat voters influence around 90 out of the 200 constituencies and are a dominant force in Shekhawati and Marwar regions.

“In districts such as Sikar, Jhunjhunu, Churu, Bharatpur, Dholpur, Nagaur, Ajmer, Sriganganagar, Hanumangarh, Jodhpur, Bikaner, Barmer and Jaisalmer, Jats will play a decisive role in sending candidates to the Assembly. It was the community’s support in these regions which helped us reduce the Congress to 21 seats in 2013,” the BJP leader said.

Among reasons Congress leaders cite for Jats supporting the BJP in 2013 is the persecution of Mahipal Maderna, an accused in Bhanwari Devi murder case who was a minister in the Gehlot government and is the son of Parasram Maderna. “One of the reasons behind the Congress not declaring a chief ministerial candidate till now is also because they don’t want to take the risk of the Jats disapproving of the person,” said a Congress leader.

The absence of prominent faces from the community in both major parties have helped politicians such as Independent MLA from Khinvsar Hanuman Beniwal — a former BJP leader who recently launched an outfit called Rashtriya Loktantrik Party — to project themselves as the future of Jat politics.

Beniwal, an advocate of a third front, says the presence of Jat voters in almost every constituency will help swing the vote in favour of his party and present an alternative to the BJP and Congress.

Harish Choudhary, former MP and AICC national secretary, said, “The Jat community will support the Congress because issues important to them are priorities for our party.”

Members of Jat social outfits say neither party can afford to take the community as granted. “There is an advantage to Congress because of anti-incumbency and BJP’s decisions such as demonetisation owing to which many farmers suffered. But the community hopes that more tickets are given to Jat candidates. Neither party can take us for granted,” said Raja Ram Meel, president, Rajasthan Jat Mahasabha.

BJP leaders said they are confident of getting the support of Jats. “We are confident this time too, the Jat community will vote for us and we will form the government,” said Poonia.