Could J&K face a water shortage in the summer? Here’s what to know about the dry winter in the Valley

The absence of adequate snowfall in the winter drives up anxieties in Kashmir. This is because the accumulation of snow on mountaintops is essential for the water flows that are needed for irrigation and the generation of hydropower in the summer.

How dry has this winter been in the Valley?

It’s been a warm winter in J&K, and intermittent snowfall in December and January has melted quickly under a harsh sun and temperatures that have remained 5-6 degrees Celsius above normal over several weeks in the last two months.

However, the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD’s) predictions of snow towards the end of February have come true, and precipitation from February 25 onward has brought the deficit down from almost 80% to 42%.

Gulmarg, where the Khelo India winter games scheduled to begin on February 22 had to be postponed due to the lack of snow on the slopes, has received 113 cm of snow since February 25, the IMD said on Friday.

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Was the dry winter unusual or unexpected?

The Chief Minister said last week that the dry winter was “not a recent phenomenon, actually it’s been building up for a few years now”.

He said that the government would be adopting a “more proactive approach for water management and conservation”, but urged people to also do their bit to prevent possible water crises.

Environmentalist Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, Vice Chancellor of the Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST) in Awantipora, said winter snowfall in Kashmir has been diminishing over the past decade.

Average minimum and maximum temperatures are showing “statistically significant increasing trends” in the winter months, Dr Romshoo wrote in a 2014 paper on climate change in the Kashmir Himalayas.

The effects of climate change can be seen in “less snow, receding glaciers, increasing temperatures, and decreasing precipitation”, Dr Romshoo, who wrote his doctoral thesis on water resources engineering and has been researching the subject for almost four decades, noted.

And has this trend intensified over the years?

Yes. Dr Romshoo said that the last six years especially have seen a sharp decline in winter precipitation, coupled with higher winter temperatures that have enhanced the melting of glaciers.

“This trend of dry winter and snowless chillai kalaan has been a feature for the last few years. Twenty years ago, three feet of snow in Srinagar was considered normal, but it has been decreasing gradually. Particularly in the last six-seven years, we have seen significantly less snowfall than the long-term average,” he told The Indian Express.

Chillai kalaan is a 40-day period in December and January when the winter is traditionally at its severest and temperatures remain below freezing point. There is heavy snowfall, which helps lock the snow in the upper reaches.

Will the current precipitation in Kashmir reduce the risk of the water crisis that the Chief Minister cautioned against?

The overall concern is always about there not being enough snow reserves in the glaciers, which might lead to water shortages in the summer.

Prof Romshoo, who spoke to The Indian Express before the current spell of rain and snow began, said the situation should improve in March and April, when the Valley receives rainfall.

This rain revives many springs and replenishes the water table. The Achabal spring in South Kashmir, which was reported to have run dry for the first time in recorded history, has benefited from this week’s precipitation.

“It is too early to say whether there will be a water crisis,” Dr Romshoo said. “We (Kashmir) are a water-surplus area. The areas downstream are likely to face more difficulty. We are sitting on the water tower of Asia.”

There would be cause for worry, however, if J&K does not receive the expected snow or rain over the next two months. “That will be a problem. Rising temperatures in February are definitely a concern,” Dr Romshoo said.