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Nepal’s Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ told the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday (September 21) that his country was “closer to logically concluding our unique…peace process”, and that “completing the remaining task of transitional justice is top on my political agenda”.
He said there would be “no blanket amnesty for the serious violation of human rights”, and sought “goodwill and support” from the international community for the conclusion of the peace process.
A large number of Maoist leaders, including Prachanda himself, are accused of murder and grave violations of human rights during the 1996-2006 civil war in Nepal, in which an estimated 17,000 people were killed. The transitional justice Bill that was introduced in Parliament in March is seen as being inadequate for the effective prosecution of these serious crimes.
Prachanda will travel to China on an eight-day visit beginning Saturday — a trip that is seen as an effort to balance Nepal’s relationship with its two large neighbours to the north and south. He had visited India at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi three and a half months ago.
The Prime Minister’s visit to the US and China is taking place at a time when top leaders of all three major parties in Nepal, both in government and in the opposition, face public scrutiny and outrage for alleged corruption, and the government’s authority and credibility has been eroded both at home and abroad.
Prachanda’s role as the leader of the violent Maoist insurgency led to his being put on US global watch lists. He was given a restricted travel permit when he addressed the UNGA for the first time as PM in September 2008. However, the once strongly anti-US Maoist leader is now an important facilitator for American interests in Nepal, given the vital geostrategic location of the country, and the growing US interest in the region.
Prachanda played a key role in the February 2022 endorsement by Parliament of the $500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Nepal compact grant, ignoring China’s disapproval. The US had warned that not meeting the deadline would lead to a review of bilateral relations, and Parliament’s action was followed by a marked upswing in Nepal-US relations.
Prachanda aligned with the pro-India and pro-US Nepali Congress in the November 2022 election, and allowed Nepali Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba to persuade him to back the MCC. Nepal went on to side with the US in the UN in condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine. However, in June 2022, the Deuba government backed away from the State Partnership Program (SPP) — involving cooperation with the US in training, disaster management, and education — amid fears that it would pull Nepal into an anti-China military pact.
In 75 years of the bilateral relationship, the US has played a major role in Nepal’s health, education, and agriculture sectors, mostly through USAID. However, the MCC concept had split the political class, with many suspecting it was basically a security concept, the acceptance of which would impact Nepal’s non-aligned foreign policy, and also annoy China.
The almost six-month economic blockade of Nepal by India from September 2015 onward gave China a fast track into the country. It intervened aggressively in Nepal’s politics, and played a role in bringing the two communist parties, Prachanda’s Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) and K P Sharma Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) together. Oli became Prime Minister after the elections of 2018, with the understanding that he would step aside for Prachanda in the second half of his five-year term.
Oli’s tenure saw a massive shift in Nepal’s relationship with India, China, and the US. With a strong sentiment against India in the country, Oli’s government signed trade and transit agreements with China that gave Nepal access to the sea in the north. Even after Oli and Prachanda fell out — on issues including ratification of the MCC Nepal compact — China continued to make efforts for communist unity. On his visit to Nepal in October 2019, President Xi Jinping promised major investments in key areas including hospitality and tourism, energy sector — hydro and solar — as well as in post-earthquake reconstruction. He assured Nepal that China would always stand by its sovereignty.
China also asked Nepal to select projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and of a list of 35 possible projects, Nepal shortlisted nine: the Kerung-Kathmandu railway project feasibility study; the Tamor (762 MW) and Phukot-Karnali hydro projects (462 MW); the Galrchhi-Rasuwagarhi-Kerung 400 KV transmission line; Madan Bhandari University; Rasuwagarhi-Kathmandu road upgradation; construction of Kimathanka line road; Dipayal road up to the China border; and Tokha-Bidur road along with tunnel.
But the Covid-19 pandemic put the projects on hold, and the endorsement of the MCC compact last year has changed Nepal’s narrative about a development partnership with China. Prachanda and his coalition partners seem to be heeding the Indian and US warnings about a Chinese debt trap, and believe China should provide grants, rather than the soft loan mentioned in the BRI agreement signed five years ago.
“I will request China to have project grants to begin with,” the Prime Minister had told some editors a couple of weeks before his departure for the US.
“Our challenge lies in convincing China that we are committed to our friendship with our neighbours and that the MCC is only a developmental project with no strategic or security significance,” a senior diplomat had told The Indian Express earlier.
Government sources said Prachanda will also ask the Chinese to waive the more than $215 million loan taken from the Exim Bank of China to build the Pokhara International Airport. The airport was opened earlier this year, but is lying idle for want of a profitable operational plan.
China is keen to enlarge its presence, investments and interests in Nepal to counter or neutralise the US and India in the country and region. It seems to have realised that depending solely on the big left parties, the UML and Maoists, had been a mistake, and is likely to expand its political outreach to other parties in the times to come.
Prachanda’s role in the ratification of the MCC has alarmed the Chinese. But the way Nepal’s governments have run foreign policy — seemingly putting personal and party interests above those of the country’s — has caused significant disquiet among a large section of Nepalis as well. It must be noted that neither the MCC nor the BRI were debated in Parliament before the government signed the pacts with the respective countries.
India has burnt its fingers a few times in Nepal, and bilateral relations have witnessed major changes over the years. Some unique, fundamental features of the bilateral relationship are now in retreat.
Army chief General Prabhuram Sharma last week said the open border with India poses a threat to peace and law and order in Nepal. The Gorkha recruitment that independent India gave continuity to, is now a thing of the past. Disputes over the border keep arising.
India and the US agree that the coming together of the major communist parties would allow China greater leverage in Nepal. Leaders of India’s ruling dispensation believe that India should support the US to contain China in Nepal, an admission of New Delhi’s own diminishing clout and role in Nepal.
India will be closely watching Prachanda’s visit to China, to see how warmly or curtly he is received, and how courageously or clearly he puts across Nepal’s point of view during meetings with President Xi and Premier Li Qiang.
