Gaza peace plan: Trump the businessman’s big imprint; for India, reasons for relief, caution

The plan has different elements, which will hold ramifications for the wider Middle East region, for Trump, and for India. Crucially, Hamas is yet to accept the plan.

Broad contours of Trump’s Gaza plan

First, and the most critical point, is that Hamas will disarm and surrender, and its members will be given a safe passage to wherever they wish to go.

Point 6 of the Plan says that Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and to “decommission their weapons will be given amnesty”. Members of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided “safe passage to receiving countries”, which could be Jordan, Egypt, and Qatar.

Considering that Hamas has ruled the Gaza Strip for almost two decades and fought as combatants against the Israeli Defence Forces, this is going to be the biggest challenge for the deal to be established. Israel too will have to keep its bargain of allowing them “safe passage”.

Second, the US, Arab and international partners will develop a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) to deploy immediately in Gaza.

The plan says, “The ISF will train and provide support to vetted Palestinian police forces in Gaza, and will consult with Jordan and Egypt who have extensive experience in this field. This force will be the long-term internal security solution… It is critical to prevent munitions from entering Gaza and to facilitate the rapid and secure flow of goods to rebuild and revitalize Gaza.”

Stating upfront that “Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza”, the plan says that “as the ISF establishes control and stability, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw based on standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization that will be agreed upon between the IDF, ISF, the guarantors, and the United States, with the objective of a secure Gaza that no longer poses a threat to Israel, Egypt, or its citizens.” Only a “security perimeter presence” of the IDF “will remain until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat.”

“In the event Hamas delays or rejects this proposal, the above, including the scaled-up aid operation, will proceed in the terror-free areas handed over from the IDF to the ISF,” it says.

Third, the plan envisages the governance structure of Gaza — what is doctrinally called the “The Day After plan”.

This says that Gaza will be governed under the “temporary transitional governance” of a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee”, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza.

This committee will be made up of “qualified Palestinians” and “International experts”, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed by Trump, with other members and heads of State to be announced, including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair. This puts Trump in charge of the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.

The inclusion of Blair has raised some eyebrows across the world, including in the Middle East. Blair was famously held responsible for manufacturing evidence of the presence of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) that provided the justification of the 2003 Iraq war. He is thus viewed with some distrust in the region. Also, his consultancy firm is seen to be responsible for all the fancy plans to reconstruct a ‘riviera-like’ Gaza.

Fourth, the plan allows the flow of aid, restricted over the last two years. It says that “humanitarian aid, including rehabilitation of infrastructure (water, electricity, sewage), rehabilitation of hospitals and bakeries, and entry of necessary equipment to remove rubble and open roads” will be permitted, and its distribution will proceed without interference through the United Nations and its agencies, and the Red Crescent.

Fifth, it says, “Within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting this agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, will be returned. Once all hostages are released, Israel will release 250 life sentence prisoners plus 1700 Gazans who were detained after October 7th 2023, including all women and children detained in that context. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans.”

Hamas still holds 48 hostages, 20 of whom are believed by Israel to be alive.

Sixth, the plan says that a guarantee will be provided by regional partners to ensure that Hamas and its factions comply with their obligations and that New Gaza poses no threat to its neighbours or its people.

In this context, eight Arab and Muslim nations — Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt — on Tuesday issued a joint statement welcoming Trump’s proposal.

What this holds for Trump

If the plan goes through, it will be a boost to Trump’s legacy, and his ambitions of a Nobel peace prize. The last major Israel-Palestine peace plan, the Oslo Accords of the 1990s, saw two former Israeli PMs and the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat get the peace Nobel.

The X-factor in this plan is the non-inclusion of Iran in the process. With Tehran weakened and Hamas and Hezbollah decimated, the US administration finds this to be the most opportune moment to strike a deal in the region.

But apart from ‘Trump the peacemaker’, this plan also holds gains for Trump the businessman, with the scope of building hotels and malls and apartment blocks in the ‘new Gaza’.

A key player in Trump’s team has been the President’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who has business interests in the Middle East and Gulf region. He also has robust relationships with the rulers and the monarchies in the region.

What is in this for New Delhi

For India, peace in the region is important, for its diaspora, its economic interests, and its strategic needs.

There are about 18,000 Indians in Israel, about 5,000-10,000 in Iran, and some 90 lakh in the region as a whole.

The Middle East provides India with 80% of its oil supplies. The peace plan will impact energy prices. Also, major Arab countries have been keen to invest in the Indian economy; those plans will also get a boost with peace. Then there is the India-Middle East-Europe Economic corridor, which India has high hopes from.

What is not great news for New Delhi is Pakistan’s seeming close involvement in the peace plan process, and the signals it sends about US-Pakistan ties.

Trump thanked leaders from Jordan, UAE, Saudi, and Pakistan for the plan.

“We were together with most of these people that I’m mentioning. Others were by phone or the next day. The prime minister and the field marshal of Pakistan, they were with us right from the beginning, incredible,” he said. “In fact, they just put out a statement that they fully believe in this pact. It just came out. Just as I was walking out, they said, ‘Sir, you have a big notice from the prime minister of Pakistan and from the field marshal that they back this 100 percent,” Trump added.