Why Mumbai is sweating this February: Anticyclone above the sea, other factors

The situation is unlikely to change in the coming days – the IMD has forecast daily highs of between 36 degrees and 37 degrees Celsius until at least the end of this week.

The current February heat follows the hottest January on the record for Mumbai.

What has spurred the spike in temperatures in Mumbai?

Sunil Kamble, Director of IMD Mumbai, said easterly winds are blowing until around noon, following which the wind direction is changing to north-westerly, which is leading to a rise in temperatures during the day.

“The north-westerly winds in the afternoon lead to the spike of daytime temperatures while the easterly winds in the early hours are cooler. The above-normal temperatures are likely to continue into the current week,” Kamble said.

The IMD has also flagged the absence of western disturbances that bring rain in February. These weather patterns bring cooler northerly winds to Mumbai, driving down temperatures in the city.

Rajesh Kapadia, who writes the weather blog Vagaries of Weather, said the northwesterlies blowing into the city were generated by an anticyclonic system above the Arabian Sea. “Due the anticyclone system off the west coast in the Arabian Sea, the winds are moving in a clockwise direction, which is leading to the arrival of north-westerly winds,” Kapadia said.

Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather Services said clear skies and bright sunlight through the day have resulted in both higher maximum temperatures, as well as faster cooling at night.

Is it abnormal for Mumbai to see such heat in February?

Although the deviation from normal temperatures during the ongoing warm spell has seemed unusual, IMD data show that such warm days in February are not unheard of.

Mumbai recorded a maximum temperature of 37.5 in February 2024, and on the warmest day of February 2023, the day temperature touched 37.9 degrees Celsius.

The hottest ever February day was experienced in 1966, when the maximum temperature climbed to 39.6 degrees Celsius.

A large diurnal range – the difference between the highest and lowest temperatures in a 24-hour cycle – is, however, atypical for February. Kapadia said big gaps in day highs and night lows in Mumbai and Maharashtra are generally seen in March.

Does the hot February mean the end of winter in Mumbai?

“February is the month of transition between winter and summer for the city, and therefore, temperatures tend to fluctuate during this month,” Kamble said.

Summer typically begins only in March; however, the IMD does not have an official date for the end of the cold season and onset of the hot season.

According to the IMD, day temperatures are likely to remain high for the next 4-5 days, and the maximum could climb to 37 degrees on February 22. However, a small dip in heat levels may result after Thursday, when the anticyclone is expected to weaken.