Why this Census is crucial for delimitation, women’s quota, what’s the legal roadmap

Delimitation exercise

THE PROCESS: Since senior government sources have said that the Census process is expected to be completed by 2026, it would imply that the government is hoping to wrap up the process in time for the 2029 Lok Sabha election.

The timeline is significant since it also involves the delimitation exercise. Delimitation is the process of fixing or redrawing the boundaries of territorial constituencies. A Delimitation Commission is appointed for carrying out the exercise.

Though the decadal Census has been conducted seven times since Independence (1951 to 2011), the delimitation exercise has been carried out only four times (in 1952, 1953, 1973, and 2002).

The last delimitation, however, only readjusted the boundaries of constituencies based on population, and did not lead to an increase in the number of seats, which have remained constant since 1976. This was because the Constitution was amended in 1976 and 2001 to readjust the allocation of seats till the findings of the first Census taken after 2001 and 2026 respectively are published.

The number of seats in Lok Sabha is currently 543, and in all state Assemblies taken together, 4,123. These numbers were decided on the basis of the 1971 Census for Lok Sabha and 2001 Census for state constituencies, when the country’s population was 54.81 crore and 102.87 crore respectively. The numbers of seats are likely to increase substantially, going by the expected population of around 1.5 billion when the 2021 Census is eventually conducted.

CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES: Article 82 of the Constitution calls for such re-adjustment of boundaries after each Census.

“Upon the completion of each census, the allocation of seats in the House of the People to the States and the division of each State into territorial constituencies shall be readjusted by such authority and in such manner as Parliament may by law determine,” the provision states.

The 42nd Constitution Amendment brought in 1976 amended Article 170, and froze the delimitation exercise until the results of the first Census after 2000 were published. In 2001, this was further extended for 25 years. And now, delimitation will happen only after the results of the first Census after 2026 are published.

Article 170 deals with the composition of legislative Assemblies, and contains an explanation to the provision defining the word “population” which is the basis for dividing territorial constituencies.

The provision states: “In this clause, the expression “population” means the population as ascertained at the last preceding census of which the relevant figures have been published: Provided the reference in this Explanation to the last preceding census of which the relevant figures have been published shall, until the relevant figures for the first census taken after the year 2026 have been published, be construed as a reference to the 2001 census.”

Questions have been raised on whether the 2021 Census, taken in 2025 and published in 2026, can be the basis for the readjustment mandated under Article 82.

This provision will have to be amended to facilitate delimitation before the next Lok Sabha election. Apart from this, other provisions dealing with the composition of the Lok Sabha (Article 81); state Assemblies (Article 170), and President’s election (Article 55) will also have to be altered.

POLITICAL CHALLENGES: There are other challenges too, such as building consensus on the procedure to be followed for delimitation.

So far, delimitation Acts passed by Parliament have said that readjustment is done on the basis of the Census, physical features, existing boundaries or administrative units, facilities of communication and public convenience.

The same challenges that led to the readjustment being postponed in 1976 and 2001 remain today. Southern states that have fared better in controlling their population would lose out if the number of seats are to be increased on the basis of only population, which has increased more in the North.

The BJP’s numbers in the House will also be crucial to carry out these amendments.

While it had majorities of its own in 2014 and 2019, this time the party has 240 seats in Lok Sabha, and needs its allies, the Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal (United) to push through legislation. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister and TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu recently flagged the issue of declining young population, saying he was thinking of giving an incentive to families that have more than two children.

Women’s reservation

In September 2023, Parliament amended The Constitution (One Hundred and Twenty-eighth Amendment) to provide 33 per cent reservation to women in Lok Sabha and state legislative Assemblies. A crucial provision in the law makes the implementation of women’s reservation contingent upon the delimitation process.

It states that the quota “shall come into effect after an exercise of delimitation is undertaken for this purpose after the relevant figures for the first census taken after the commencement of The Constitution (One Hundred and Twenty-eighth Amendment) Bill 2023 have been published, and shall cease to have effect on the expiration of a period of 15 years from the date of such commencement.”

This in effect will be the 2021 Census that, according to the latest indications, is likely to be published in 2026.

One of the reasons women’s reservation did not become a reality in the last 35 years was the fear among male politicians of having to let go of their seats.

A 33 per cent reservation in the current 545-member Lok Sabha would mean 182 seats being kept for women. Only 363 seats would be available for men. The current Lok Sabha has 467 men. But delimitation could preserve the political fortunes of the current group of male politicians.

If, as a result of the delimitation exercise, the strength of Lok Sabha increases to 770, as some calculations suggest, 257 seats would be reserved for women, and the remaining 513 could be available for men to contest. This would mean that political parties would have to deal with fewer complications in accommodating the political interests of their male leaders.