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Journalism of Courage
As relentless rain ravaged Pune on July 25, there was a question floating on many minds: When will it end? The answer came from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Pune. Dr Anupam Kashyapi, who retired as the head of Pune IMD’s Weather Forecasting Division three months ago, was not only personally updating senior officials at the Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad municipal corporations, but also the public through social media.
Kashyapi’s tools were a laptop and an Android phone but what he was really reaching for were satellite and radar images and short-range and medium-range forecast models. The rain, he announced, would continue for a second day, justifying red, orange and yellow alerts in areas ranging from Raigad and Ratnagiri to Mumbai and Pune city.
Indians have had an intimate relationship with the weather, and ancient scriptures, from the Upanishads written in 3000 BC and the Brihatsamhita from 500 AD to Kalidas’s Meghdoot composed around the seventh century, refer to cloud formations, rain, the seasonal cycles and the path of the monsoon.
When the thermometer and the barometer were invented and the laws of atmospheric gases formulated, modern meteorology was born in the 17th century. The British East India Company established some of the oldest meteorological observatories of the world in several cities of the country. Like the weather, change is constant at IMD Pune.
The address of IMD Pune is Shivajinagar but, in July 1992, when a young Kashyapi arrived at the railway station, he could find nobody to tell him where to go. He gave them hints – the IMD was the place that measured temperature, rainfall, weather and so on. “They asked, ‘the observatory? Do you want to go to the Shimla Office?’” recalls Kashyapi.
Shimla Office is a major landmark in Pune. The IMD office is popularly called after the Himachal Pradesh city because the Met Department had its headquarters in Shimla until the British government shifted it to Pune, then known as Poona, in 1926.
Construction of the grand building was completed in June 1928, and the then Governor of Bombay, Sir Leslie Orme Wilson, inaugurated it on July 20, 1928. Pune was the IMD headquarters till World War II began in September 1939, after which it was, subsequently, shifted to Delhi.
“The focus of the monsoon is very essential, especially from the end of May to September because India is an agricultural country with a large farming community. We need to know about rainfall to support farmers in growing kharif crops. In the 1930s-40s, the agricultural meteorology division, headquartered in Pune, launched the Farmers’ Weather Bulletin with forecasts that had validity for 48 hours,” says Kashyapi. The scientific guessing, based on current weather, was called ‘Outlook’ in English and ‘Sambhavana’ in Hindi.
Surface observation, done manually, used instruments such as rain gauge, different kinds of thermometers and wind vanes. “From the very beginning, the IMD used to have collaborations with the international community. India is one of the oldest members of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). As per the WMO guidelines, the observations took place at the same time throughout the globe. These observations are called synoptic hours of observation. Our Central Observatory, which is still functioning, is located within the College of Agriculture campus. We took manual observation keeping in mind that we had to add 5.30 hours to Greenwich Mean Time to reach Indian Standard Time,” says Kashyapi. “People are continuing to do this throughout the country even today though we have a manpower shortage. We consider this to be a kind of ground truth,” he adds.
One instrument, however, has been shoved into history. When Kashyapi joined IMD Pune, calculators were non-existent. They used Facit, named after a Swedish company that manufactured mechanical and electronic calculators from 1918 to 1972. The vintage machines seem to have been complicated to use.
Today, the Met department is equipped with satellites, radars and the latest tech know-how that can measure any weather parameter but the validation and calibration of the readings, which are crucial, still come from surface observation that is operated by human beings. Artificial Intelligence will make it possible to have hyper-local weather forecasts as climate change disrupts weather patterns even within a city, but Kashyapi is sure that officials will still be out there, corroborating the readings manually from the observatory.
While weather forecasts remain important for farmers, Kashyapi has interesting stories about advising chief ministers during tremors and cyclones. “I have found that the only way to do weather forecasting is with passion. Forecasting is a huge challenge and one should not be complacent.
If a forecast goes wrong, it can be dangerous because the public depends on you,” he says.
