‘90 per cent predictions made by IMD are spot on’

We had a plan to launch it during the Commonwealth Games. However,it did not happen. We were exploring public-private partnership model for its working. A few private TV channels showed interest in the project,but they did not find it economically viable. Now,we are planning to launch it on our own. It will take few months to do so.

Do you feel it is necessary to have trained dedicated weather reporters to cover weather-related news?

There remains a communication gap between weather officials and media persons when it comes to understanding the subject and terminology. It can mislead the readers or audiences. From our side,we have been trying to conduct training sessions for mediapersons. Moreover,we have planned to come up with a booklet to explain various phenomena and terminology. It will be published in regional languages too.

There is a perception among common people that weather forecasting is more often off the mark. Your comment…

Firstly,no natural system can be predicted accurately. It will be an approximate prediction. We predict weather as per the available scientific methods. Since there are so many factors involved in weather prediction,the element of uncertainty will always be there. We get the pictures from satellite 36,000 km away from us,which means that an area as big as 10 km might resemble a dot in the image. It just means that we cannot make out the exact city location and a city such as Pune is mere longitude and latitude. So,while a broader picture of possible events occurring is available,exact and accurate predictions are impossible. Moreover,there are constant fluctuations in weather in tropical regions like India that makes the exact prediction further difficult.

Is there a system to advise farmers on weather conditions?

We have a separate wing for the purpose. The state agriculture department and IMD jointly arrange meetings about the prediction of rains. During monsoon we generally disseminate the information regarding rains twice a week to farmers through agriculture department. We also have agriculture meteorology advisory services for farmers.

Can there be a dedicated forecast for the city? On October 4,there was record rainfall in the city. The predictions however did not seem to match..

First of all,we had predicted thunderstorm on that day. Secondly,rainfall occurred in specific areas and was not same across all parts of the city. In case of convective rains,the amount of rainfall varies in different areas. However,we are considering having a better weather monitoring system. A Doppler radar will be installed in Mumbai for now-casting. We would be able to provide short-range forecast with the help of this radar.

Can monsoon prediction be more accurate? It proved wrong last year…

It is true that last year it failed. But if you compare IMD’s forecast with the forecast of other organisations,it was far better. Larger the area,more accurate the predictions,which means that weather prediction is more correct at the national level than state or district level. As the resolution of satellite pictures is smaller,accuracy reduces when it comes to state,district or to city level. We have been updating the systems and can provide more accurate predictions though numerical models. Future might make it possible to measure weather parameters through sensors on mobile phones or TV antennae. It will provide more local information which will be useful for better predictions.

We are also planning to increase automatic weather stations from present 500 to 550. We will also have more rain gauge stations for better monitoring of rainfall across the country.

Presently,what is the percentage of accurate predictions?

Approximately 90 per cent predictions of IMD are spot on. However,there is a general tendency to discuss what has gone wrong. Now,even common people have been directly contacting the IMD office for information of weather. There is need to have more awareness on weather prediction issues.

Has Pune weather changed in the last few years?

If we look at the data of the last 100 years,there is not much deviation. People might narrate the stories of how a fan was a luxury in Pune years ago and that the city was like a hill station then,but the fact is that even today,the city is yet to cross the temperature highpoint of 43.4 degrees Celsius that it attained in 1890. What has changed is the land use pattern and the environment around the city.