The much-touted Muslim card will play a role in 14 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The community constitutes 10.6 per cent of Maharashtra’s population. It, however, has a slightly higher concentration in Northern Konkan, Khandesh, Marathwada and Western Vidarbha.
The Muslim community will play a deciding role in the 14 constituencies — including Mumbai — where they make up between 14 and 25 per cent of the local electorate. These seats are Dhule, Nanded, Parbhani, Latur, Aurangabad, Bhiwandi,Akola, Thane and the six seats of Mumbai.
The results here will spell out whether the Muslim community stayed with the Congress or switched loyalties seeking an alternative.
Of these 14 seats, eight are with the Congress at present, two with the NCP, one with the BJP and three with the Shiv Sena. Muslims in these areas have traditionally backed the Congress-NCP combine. The constituencies with the highest Muslim concentration like Dhule, Aurangabad, Akola where the vote share is over 20 per cent the polarisation has worked to BJP-Shiv Sena’s advantage, with non-Muslims with more aggressiveness consolidate voting for BJP-Sena. “It is a fallacy that Muslims are a monolithic society when it comes to voting. In high-concentration Muslim seats like Aurangabad, Dhule and Akola, Muslims have voted for the Shiv Sena-BJP as well. Muslims on their own cannot decide the outcome of results and I believe this will be seen when the votes are counted tomorrow,” said senior journalist and social activist Sarfaraz Arzoo.
The Congress-NCP combine will need the support of the community to retain its seats. Even a slight change in results in these nine seats could suggest that Muslims seem to have abandoned the Congress.
There has been an increasing sense of anger against the Congress-led UPA that has ruled the country for the last decade. Many feel that even though the government seems to have worked towards creating institutions, the fruits of their labour have not reached the Muslim population.
The antipathy against the Narendra Modi-led BJP has also meant that the majority of Muslims will not shift to the BJP. The performance of the Aam Aadmi Party in these constituencies will indicate whether Muslims have decided to test the latest entrant in the country’s electoral field.
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“The Muslim vote has for long been taken for granted by political parties in the country. The community members this time around have decided to ensure that history is not repeated. Friday’s results will surprise many on how Muslims in the state have voted,” said Javed Pasha, a social activist and educationist from Aurangabad.
Zeeshan Shaikh is the Associate Editor who heads The Indian Express' Mumbai reporting team. He is recognized for his highly specialized Expertise in analyzing the complex dynamics of Maharashtra politics and critical minority issues, providing in-depth, nuanced, and Trustworthy reports.
Expertise
Senior Editorial Role: As an Associate Editor leading the Mumbai reporting team, Zeeshan Shaikh holds a position of significant Authority and journalistic responsibility at a leading national newspaper.
Core Specialization: His reporting focuses intensely on two interconnected, high-impact areas:
Maharashtra Politics & Urban Power Structures: Provides deep-dive analyses into political strategies, municipal elections (e.g., BMC polls), the history of alliances (e.g., Shiv Sena's shifting partners), and the changing demographics that influence civic power in Mumbai.
Minority Issues and Socio-Political Trends: Excels in coverage of the Muslim community's representation in power, demographic shifts, socio-economic challenges, and the historical context of sensitive political and cultural issues (e.g., the 'Vande Mataram' debate's roots in the BMC).
Investigative Depth: His articles frequently delve into the historical roots and contemporary consequences of major events, ranging from the rise of extremist groups in specific villages (e.g., Borivali-Padgha) to the long-term collapse of established political parties (e.g., Congress in Mumbai).
Trustworthiness & Credibility
Data-Driven Analysis: Zeeshan's work often incorporates empirical data, such as National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) statistics on arrests and convictions of minorities, or data on asset growth of politicians, grounding his reports in factual evidence.
Focus on Hinterland Issues: While based in Mumbai, he maintains a wide lens, covering issues affecting the state's hinterlands, including water crises, infrastructure delays, and the plight of marginalized communities (e.g., manual scavengers).
Institutional Affiliation: His senior position at The Indian Express—a publication known for its tradition of rigorous political and investigative journalism—underscores the high level of editorial vetting and Trustworthiness of his reports.
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