It’s a Sena vs Sena battle in the Konkan belt

The Konkan belt — spread over the districts of Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan, Palghar, Raigad and Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg — was considered a bastion of the unified Shiv Sena. Despite having a mixed demography, the region, even the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), has always been a bastion of the Sena, thanks to the support from the people of Konkan who are settled in Mumbai.

In the eighties, Konkan used to be a citadel of the Congress. But Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray’s aggressive stance for the rights of ‘Bhumi Putra’ and ‘Marathi Manoos’, which included people from Konkan, changed the scenario.

The party remained a dominant force in the region in spite of the rebellion of senior leaders like Narayan Rane, who split from the party in 2005. While the Shiv Sena survived Rane’s exit and managed to retain a decent hold in the region, the recent rebellion of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde will force the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena to prove its mettle and find out if it still has the same groundswell of support, which it had in the 2019 Assembly polls.

In the 2019 Assembly polls, an unified Sena had won 29 seats and its then ally BJP won 27 seats, which summed up to 56. The BJP-Sena alliance had then kept the Congress and NCP below the 15-seat mark and proved its dominance over the region. However, with the splits in the Sena and NCP post-June 2022, the dynamics of the region have changed.

In the recently held Lok Sabha polls, the Shinde-led Sena, BJP and Ajit Pawar-led NCP won seven seats in the Konkan region. While the BJP won the Palghar, Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg and Mumbai North seat, NCP retained Raigad. The Shinde-led Sena won Thane, Kalyan and Mumbai North West. The MVA won five seats. Sena (UBT) won three and the Congress and NCP (SP) got one each.

But a closer look at the Lok Sabha polls, Assembly segment-wise, shows a lead for Mahayuti in 48 Assembly seats. MVA led in 27 Assembly seats.

It will now be a do-or-die situation for the Sena (UBT) as after the split, several stalwart leaders, including two out of four former MPs and over 20 out of the 29 sitting MLAs from Konkan, switched to the Shinde-led Sena, leaving a vacuum in the Sena (UBT)’s leadership.

The Konkan belt is divided into two major parts — the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), and the rural districts of Palghar, Raigad, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg.

While the MMR is the most urbanised part in the state and is growing rapidly, the other part is over 90% rural and lacking basic facilities like water, electricity and transport. Youth unemployment is also a major issue.

Another issue that is finding resonance is the proposed Ratnagiri Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (RRPCL) project, which is touted as the world’s largest single-location refinery complex in the Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg seat.

While the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP government is keen on ensuring the project takes shape, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena has stood on the side of those opposing the project.

The region will see an intense battle between the two Sena factions to woo their old voter bases. Amidst this, the BJP is trying to make inroads in the region. In the coming polls, former Union minister Narayan Rane, who won the Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg Lok Sabha seat, is set to play a crucial role for the BJP with his son Nitesh, an MLA, attempting to retain his seat. Rane’s other son Nilesh is also aspiring to contest.

Shiv Sena leader and Industries Minister Uday Samant and his elder brother Bhaiyya Samant will contest in Ratnagiri. The other seats where the Sena feud will be visible are Thane City, which has Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Kopri-Pachpakhadi seat, and Worli where Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Aaditya Thackeray is contesting.

While the ruling alliance will rely on its twin planks of Hindutva and development, besides a slew of schemes, the Opposition has already flagged alleged corruption, scams and irregularities. The Sena (UBT) would also target the BJP, accusing it of breaking the Shiv Sena and Shinde of stealing the Shiv Sena to garner sympathy.