Raj plays kingmaker in Sena capital

The percentage of seats each combine won tells the story. In 2004,of 47 seats,the Congress-NCP won 24 or 51.06 per cent,while the Sena-BJP won 19,or 40.42 per cent. In 2009,with 60 seats in the region,the Congress-NCP won 26,or 43.3 per cent,a decline by seven percentage points. The Shiv Sena-BJP won 18,or 30 per cent,down 10 percentage points.

The MNS has won eight seats,a solid 13.33 per cent of the total.

What’s more,put together,the Sena-BJP and the MNS have won as many seats as the Congress-NCP,26. Clearly,the Marathi manoos issue is working.

Political analyst Professor Venkatesh Kumar says one reason for the comparatively poor showing of the Congress-NCP in the Mumbai region is a series of wrong decisions taken by the Congress,including selection of non-Marathi candidates. “Mumbai’s Mahrashtrians want local candidates who speak their tongue. The Congress selected mostly non-Marathi candidates,” he said.

But he concedes the MNS has had an impressive showing in Mumbai. “No other regional party in the recent past has made such an impact. The MNS has cleverly tapped the traditional Sena constituencies where voters felt ignored and they have moved out from the Sena towards the MNS,” he said.

But actor Atul Kulkarni,who has recently campaigned hard for people to get more active politically,feels the MNS will need to broadbase its politics if it wants to keep growing. “To establish themselves they will soon have to deal with other issues,not just the Marathi people,” he said. “Mumbai is not Maharashtra. The issue of Marathi manoos becomes much smaller when you move out of Mumbai.”

Traditional Sena voter Chaitali Sawant,a Bhandup-based homemaker whose family has had generations of Sena activists,is among the many who have switched parties. “When Raj Thackeray took up the matter of Marathi signboards,all of Mumbai changed signs. Suddenly there are a lot of people speaking in Marathi and the Hindi-speaking people are not that hostile,” she said.

Theatre activist Sunil Shanbaug agrees that the MNS has exploited the Maharashtrians’ insecurities. “The average Marathi manoos wants to be more cosmopolitan but there are a lot of insecurities,especially among the lower middle class. The MNS is exploiting these insecurities and has been partly successful,” he said. “MNS in a way is an alternative that people are turning to.”

WINNERS,LOSERS
Thane face-saver: In Thane district,where the Congress won a lone seat (Palghar) and the NCP 5,the Shiv Sena-BJP won a respectable nine. The Sena bagged three of the four seats within the Municipal Corporation limits itself,along with Shahapur and Ambarnath.

Pappu Kalani’s reign ends: In Ulhasnagar,the two-decade reign of Suresh alias Pappu Kalani ended with the victory of BJP candidate Kumar Ailani. Kalani has been the MLA of Ulhasnagar since 1990 for four consecutive terms,including twice when he was behind bars. The last time the BJP won Ulhasnagar was in 1985.

Abu Azmi twice over: After losing in the Lok Sabha elections and the 2004 Assembly elections,Samajwadi Party leader Abu Asim Azmi hit a double jackpot when he won both seats he contested,Bhiwandi East and Shivaji Nagar-Mankhurd. The SP also took Bhiwandi West,the winner being MLA Rashid Tahir who switched over from the Congress.