As Mumbai reels under 45-50% rain deficit, IMD predicts moderate showers

Following an early onset on June 9, the city experienced subdued showers for the past couple of weeks with the IMD’s Santacruz recording station clocking in 6.7 mm rain and Colaba coastal observatory recording 5.6 mm rain between Sunday and Monday.

Even as the weather bureau had forecasted above average rainfall for June, senior IMD scientists said the city is currently experiencing a shortfall of 45 – 50 per cent from its actual quantum for June rains.

While Mumbai receives an average of 550 mm rain in June, so far, the IMD’s Santacruz station has only received 200 mm rainfall. For the record, the city receives an average of 2,300 mm rainfall over the course of four monsoon months.

Data procured from IMD shows that as on Monday, while suburban Mumbai recorded a negative departure of 47 per cent, the rainfall in Mumbai City division was deficient by 40 percent.

Amid the deficit, the city is expected to receive moderate showers alongside heavy rainfall in isolated pockets from Tuesday. Meanwhile, the weather bureau has issued an orange alert for Raigad district, starting today and has stated that it could receive heavy to very heavy showers.

Speaking to The Indian Express, Sunil Kamble, director of IMD Mumbai maintained that Mumbai is only likely to receive moderate showers for now, with the rainfall activity slated to pick up pace after June 26 – 27.

Kamble said, “A yellow warning has been issued for Mumbai as we are expecting moderate showers in the city over the next few days owing to a trough near Kerala and Maharashtra coast. The city is currently receiving showers owing to westerlies while other weather systems are inactive. Therefore, the intensity of showers is much less.”

“As of Tuesday, Mumbai is short on its average for June showers by 45-50 per cent. However, the city can expect heavier showers from June 26 – 27,” he said.

Several weather experts alluded to the absence of an active weather system as the primary cause of the subdued rain activity along the western coast.

Mahesh Palawat from Skymet Weather Services said, “While Mumbai may receive moderate to heavy showers for the next 2-3 days owing to a trough, very heavy showers will continue to elude the city as even this trough is very feeble. Furthermore, low pressure systems which bring heavy showers are also absent. There is no intense weather system which can carry forward the monsoon system and induce heavy spells.”

On the question of Mumbai’s ongoing tryst with a rain deficit, meteorologists have indicated that Mumbai can make up for the shortfall in the upcoming days. “With some days still left, Mumbai can cover up its deficit even with two – three very heavy spells of showers. The rain activity is expected to become more intense after June 26 – 27,” said a weather bureau official.