Political revenge, sexual assault case and past work to decide on bellwether seat since 1962

The constituency, comprising Murbad taluka, Kalyan taluka, Ambernath and Badlapur, has always voted for the party that formed the government after an assembly election in Maharashtra.

Even in 2019, when Murbad voted for a BJP MLA, the mandate in the state was for a BJP government that got the highest number of seats (105) even though eventually the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) — comprising Congress, undivided Shiv Sena and undivided NCP government — formed the government two-and-a-half years before the Sena-BJP government led by Eknath Shinde and Devendra Fadnavis came to power in June 2022 and were later joined by Ajit Pawar-led NCP, which is one of the three parties of the Mahayuti alliance.

This time, with the battle between the Mahayuti and MVA so close, the same appears to be the case in Murbad where a three-term MLA Kisan Shankar Kathore slugs it out against Sharad Pawar-led NCP’s Subhash Pawar. Subhash is the son of three-term MLA from the seat Gotiram Pawar. Kathore’s first term was on an NCP ticket and later two terms were on BJP ticket.

Murbad constituency is spread across both urban and rural areas with almost equal number of voters in both groups. A resident of Ambernath, Kathore has strong influence in urban areas such as Badlapur and Ambernath, while Subhash Pawar is seen as stronger in Murbad taluka, where he resides. However, residents in Murbad are unanimous “Kathore ni kaam kela aayeht” (Kathore has worked for the constituency).

Vishnu Jadhav, who along with his brother owns two vegetable shops in the Murbad market, said, “One cannot deny that Kathore has done work for the constituency. Water quality was so bad that we had to purchase bottles for drinking but now we get purified water.”

Kundan Bharadwaj, a flower seller hailing from Varanasi who has made Murbad his home for 25 years and votes here, said, “Earlier there were issues with water and electricity supply that have been resolved. Even the roads you see are thanks to work done by him.”

Others, however, believe that Subhash Pawar is running a strong campaign and stands a chance. Murbad resident Amit Deshmukh (74) said, “I don’t deny Kathore has worked but it has been three terms and people want some change. In the beginning, these politicians are fine but after winning a couple of times, they are not accessible to the people.”

This was repeated by a shopkeeper from Mhasa village, 10 km from Murbad, who did not want to be named. “When he went to meet Kathore, he seemed arrogant. You may have done work but people also hope that you treat them well,” the shopkeeper said.

Jadhav, the vegetable shop owner who earlier said Kathore has worked for the constituency said, “There are a lot of die-hard Balasaheb Thackeray supporters here. If they work for their alliance partner (Sena UBT), Pawar will sail through.”

When it comes to intra-party dynamics, Subhash Pawar is better placed than Kathore. It is an open secret that Kathore and the former Bhiwandi MP and Union Minister of State Kapil Patil are at odds with each other.

When Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis came to campaign for Kapil Patil for the Lok Sabha polls, Kathore who was on the stage “had to assure the CM that he would work for Patil” as the Murbad assembly seat falls under Bhiwandi.

However, Patil lost by over 65,000 votes to Sharad Pawar-led NCP candidate, making things worse. Although Patil led in the Murbad seat, many believe he was not convinced that Kathore had kept his promise, following which there were murmurs of him getting back at Kathore in the Assembly polls.

The brother of a local BJP corporator working for Kathore said, “Everything is going positive for Kathore saab. We are only scared of the infighting.” Another campaign manager acknowledged the issue but said “we do not need them much”.

Another factor that could play out in the urban belt of Badlapur that has approximately over two lakhs of the about 4.70 lakh voters is the sexual abuse of two girls at a school in Badlapur in August, allegedly by a janitor.

The agitated parents and local residents held protests at the Badlapur station and stopped trains on August 20, leading to lathicharge and stone pelting. The CM had to intervene and an SIT was announced. In September, the accused was “gunned down in self-defence” by the Thane city police as they claimed he shot at them while trying to escape.

The incident was brought to light by local MNS activist Sangeeta Chendvankar, who was given a ticket from the Murbad seat by the party. There is fear that Chendvankar could divert some of the urban votes that generally go to Kathore. A campaign manager for Kathore said, “She will poll 5,000 – 6,000 votes and would not impact us in a big way.”

How Murbad voted in the past

From 1962 to 1980, Shantaram Gholap, who was given a ticket by the Indian National Congress, won from this seat. In the 1985 and 1990 elections, Congress gave the ticket to Gotiram Pawar who won both times.

During this period, the Congress was the single largest party in Maharashtra that went on to form the government in the state with the exception being in 1979, when the government formed by factions of the Congress was brought down by Sharad Pawar-led Progressive Democratic Front (PDF), and lasted a year.

In 1995, the trend changed for the first time when Digamber Vishe, given ticket by the BJP won the Murbad seat. It was also the first time that a Sena-BJP government was formed in the state.

However, like the state government, the seat was also with the BJP for one term. In 1999, when the Congress-NCP government came to power in the state, the seat was won by Gotiram Pawar again, this time on NCP ticket. Subhash locks horns with Kathore this time, who is Gotiram’s son.

Gotiram continued for two terms and eventually, the NCP replaced him with Kisan Kathore in 2009, who again won the polls with the Congress NCP government in the state. In 2014, Kathore jumped to the BJP and won the polls with the BJP-led Fadnavis government coming into being.

In 2019, Kathore contested again on the BJP seat and won. This time around, too, BJP was the single largest party in the state with 105 seats. However, eventually it was the Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena that formed the state government that lasted for two-and-a-half years following which the BJP-Shinde Sena government came to power again.