Pawar Sr and Ajit share dais again: What lies ahead for NCP and NCP (SP)

Highly placed sources said, “Besides sharing a stage, Sharad Pawar, Ajit Pawar and NCP (SP) leader Jayant Patil also held talks separately.”

However, both sides said there was nothing political about the meeting.

The seminar was also attended by NCP’s Dilip Walse Patil, Rajesh Tope of NCP ( SP) and Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat.

After the seminar, Ajit Pawar told mediapersons, “At the meeting, experts discussed the role and impact of AI in the sugar industry and agriculture sector. We have to keep pace with the AI which has become a reality.”

While Sharad Pawar, the seasoned politician, has kept everyone guessing about the merger, what has intrigued members of both factions and outsiders is the increased togetherness of the uncle and nephew at public forums.

In May, they were seen together at two separate events in Mumbai, and in April, the uncle and nephew shared the dais at Ryat Shikshan Sansthan Council meeting held in Satara.

The latest instance of the two leaders sharing stage came days ahead of the foundation day of the NCP on June 10 — the undivided NCP was founded by Sharad Pawar in 1999 after parting ways with Congress.

In July 2023, Sharad Pawar, following the split in the party, lost both its title NCP as well as the clock symbol to the Ajit Pawar-led faction. Sharad Pawar had to reconcile with a new name for the faction NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) and a new symbol of a man blowing a trumpet (tutari).

Officially, Sharad Pawar has indicated that the decision on whether their party should continue in Opposition benches or not was left to its working party president and his daughter, Supriya Sule.

On his part, Ajit Pawar has also never given any indication of an immediate merger.

However, a section of senior leaders close to both Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar revealed, “The merger was inevitable sooner rather than later to keep the electoral base intact. Any division further does not augur well for either factions.”

Challenges ahead of civic polls

The immediate task before both factions is to consolidate their base ahead of the local body elections to be held later this year.

Across all 27 municipal corporations, which have a total 2,736 seats, the BJP had won 1,099 seats (or 40.2 per cent of the total seats) and an overall vote share of 31.3 per cent, well ahead of its rivals in the civic polls held from 2015 to 2018.

While the Shiv Sena was the next largest party with 489 seats and an 18.49 per cent vote share, the Congress was close behind at 439 seats and a 15.53 per cent vote share, followed by the undivided NCP at 294 seats and an 11.06 per cent vote share.

With two newly formed Icchalkaranji and Jalna Municipal Corporation, the total tally of municipal corporations going to polls will increase from 27 to 29.

After the landslide victory in the 2024 Assembly polls, BJP is hoping to continue its winning streak.

A senior BJP functionary revealed, “With two successive splits in regional parties — Shiv Sena and NCP — BJP seized the opportunity to consolidate itself at grassroots… If the BJP plans well, it can emerge as the largest party in the local bodies too.”

Where do the two NCP factions stand?

The local body polls will test the leadership of both Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar.

After Operation Sindoor, Sharad Pawar’s goodwill gestures towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA were seen as a thaw in his relations with the ruling alliance. Sule was part of the multi-party delegation formed as part of the Modi government’s global outreach on terrorism.

Senior NCP ( SP) leader and former home minister Anil Deshmukh has dismissed the talks of the merger between the two parties as “speculation”. Similarly, NCP leader Sunil Tatkare said, “There are no such proposals from either side.”

Yet, a sizeable section within both factions has maintained that “anything is possible”.

Insiders in NCP and NCP ( SP) acknowledge that the split in the party will prove detrimental to both Pawar Sr and Ajit Pawar in the long run.

Bid to prevent exodus

In the Lok Sabha polls held after the split in the party, Sharad Pawar outsmarted Ajit Pawar. While NCP ( SP) won eight seats ( 10.27 per cent vote share ), Ajit Pawar won just one seat ( 3.60 per cent vote share).

Six months later, in the Assembly polls, NCP ( SP) won just ten seats ( 11.28 pc vote share) and NCP bagged 41 seats ( 9.01 per cent vote share).

At 84, Sharad Pawar is faced with the task of rebuilding the organisation. Even when the party was united, Pawar Sr often focused on national issues. When it came to grassroots politics and local bodies, it was Ajit Pawar who played a proactive role under his uncle’s guidance and a strong team of experienced leaders loyal to Pawar Sr.

During the split, majority of these experienced leaders moved to the Ajit Pawar camp.

At a time when NCP ( SP) seems weakest, many wonder if Sharad Pawar was using merger talks to give his party a boost.

Like Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, who is trying to make deeper inroads into Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray, Ajit Pawar would also like to have control over the entire NCP.

Therefore, perceived proximity between the two factions is being used by both leaders to avert any exodus from their respective factions towards the BJP.