Maharashtra sees 33% drop in all-cause deaths in 2023 compared to 2021

For 2023, Maharashtra reported 6.76 lakh deaths which was a fall of 13 per cent over 2022 when it registered 7.80 lakh deaths. This is a substantial decline compared to the pandemic years when the state reported 8.08 lakh deaths in 2020 and 10.09 lakh deaths in 2021.

An analysis of the data showed in 2017, Maharashtra witnessed 6,48,256 all-cause deaths which climbed to 6,85,689 in 2018 — 37,433 additional deaths marking a rise of 5.7 per cent.

In 2019, it slightly increased further to 6,93,800 deaths with a mere 8,111 additional deaths or 1.18 per cent rise.

However, when the state got hit by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, the all-cause deaths jumped to 8,08,783.

The state recorded over 1.14 lakh more deaths than the previous year, with a surge of 16.57 per cent.

In 2021, this further increased as the state witnessed its all-time high deaths 10,09,114—with 200,331 or 24.75 per cent rise in additional deaths which were also referred to as “excess deaths” globally.

Excess deaths measures the additional deaths recorded in a certain time of period compared to the previous years and is not dependent on the Covid-19 deaths tally.

However, post-pandemic, all-cause deaths started to decline.

RTI data shows 780,998 deaths in 2022, marking a 22.6 percent decrease, followed by a further decline to 676,020 in 2023, with a 13.45 percent drop.

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the state experienced a consistent annual increase in deaths, usually between 2 percent and 6 percent.

However, during the Covid-19 crisis in 2020 and 2021, this annual death rate soared—compared to 2019, the all-cause deaths increased by 45.42 per cent in 2021.

Recent data acquired through a Right to Information (RTI) application by The Indian Express from the Health Department revealed a gradual decline in annual all-cause deaths after the pandemic.

Overall, compared to 2021, the state recorded a significant 33 percent drop in total fatalities in 2023, marking a return to levels akin to 2019—the lowest increase on record.

Dr Avinash Supe, former in-charge of the Covid death committee said, “Globally, there was a surge in all-cause deaths. However, it was anticipated that mortality rates would decrease post-pandemic, mirroring trends observed in other countries.”

The decline also highlights how pandemic-related lockdowns led to a decrease in accident-related deaths while amplifying fatalities from other illnesses due to limited healthcare access.

During the national lockdowns, footfall of non-emergency cases in the state declined by 80 per cent, impacting healthcare delivery significantly.

For instance, at the biggest government-run hospital in Mumbai — JJ hospital, in 2019, the admission of non-Covid-19 patients was 55,411 which dropped to 28,284 in 2020 and 24,761 the next year. Similarly, in KEM hospital — the biggest civic-run hospital in Mumbai, the daily number of in-patients dropped from 88,000 to around 55,000.

Although this should have contributed in containing the annual deaths, the health experts believe that it further affected the population especially the patients with chronic health issues.

The healthcare system was stretched to its limit during the peaks of the Covid-19 pandemic, and it is possible that individuals may have died due to non-Covid causes because of them reaching the healthcare system late, said Dr Lancelot Pinto, epidemiologist and pulmonologist from the Hinduja Hospital.

“There was intense stigma associated with Covid-19 during the early surges, and individuals could or passed away at home without any definitive diagnosis. All of these factors contributed to the rise in over-all fatalities,” he said.

In Mumbai too, all-cause deaths have declined.

In 2021, the city recorded 1,08,113 deaths, which decreased to 94,486 in 2022, and further to 93,140 in 2023—marking the highest in the state.

“Mumbai, bearing the highest population burden and nearly 40 per cent of patients from outside, consistently records the highest number of deaths in the state. However, there has been a decline in fatalities, even with the increase in accidental deaths such as road traffic incidents post pandemic,” stated a senior officer from the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC).