It would be still early to say that the results of Dhupguri Assembly bypoll in West Bengal indicate a certain political trend ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, but there are a few takeaways that could have a possible bearing on the next general elections. First of all, Dhupguri is the eighth consecutive loss for the BJP since the 2021 Assembly elections in the state, when the party won 77 seats – its highest-ever tally in West Bengal. However, the party, which ran a high-voltage campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, failed to unseat the ruling Trinamool Congress and Mamata Banerjee was sworn in as the chief minister of West Bengal for the third straight term. Since then, the BJP, despite being the sole Opposition party in the Assembly – the Congress and Left failed to win a single seat; its ally newly formed ISF bagged one seat – the party has been on a downhill, electorally. Its effective strength has dropped to 68 following losses in the bypolls and a series of defections. It has lost all the bypolls in the state since the 2021 Assembly elections, beginning from Bhabanipur in Kolkata, Khardaha in North 24 Parganas district, Gosaba in South 24 Parganas district, Dinhata in Cooch Behar district, Santipur in Nadia district, Ballygunge in Kolkata, Sagardighi in Murshidabad district and now Dhupguri in Jalpaiguri district. The BJP failed to retain three seats – Dinhata, Santipur, and Dhupguri – which it had won two years ago, and came second in three Assembly bypolls – Bhabanipur, Gosaba, Khardaha, and third in two bypolls – Ballygunge and Sagardighi. However, the party could get solace that the margin of its defeat in Dhupguri was a slim one – BJP's Tapasi Roy lost to TMC's Nirmal Chandra Roy by 4,309 votes. The difference in vote share was thus very small – TMC bagged 46.28% of votes, BJP 44.23%. This was just a reverse of the 2021 results. The BJP had then won Dhupguri by a margin of 4,355 votes. However, if we compare the vote share of the two parties in Dhupguri since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, then we come to know that in the last four years, the BJP's vote share has eroded by 5 percentage points – from 49.15% in 2019 to 44.23% in 2023 – while the TMC has gained by 6 percentage points – from 40.89% in 2019 to 46.28% in 2023. While the slip in vote share should raise an alarm within the BJP, it should be more concerned by the fact that the party seems to be losing its grip in north Bengal, where it emerged as a dominant political player five years ago. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won seven Lok Sabha seats in the north Bengal. In 2021 Assembly polls, it won 30 of the 54 Assembly seats in the eight north Bengal districts. The BJP’s success in north Bengal has also been closely tied to its support base among Rajbanshis — categorised under the Scheduled Castes, the community is mostly concentrated in Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri, Darjeeling, Malda and Murshidabad districts in northern parts of the state with an estimated population of over 33 lakh. But the party's loss in Dhupguri, where Rajbanshis account for 60 per cent of the total population, hints at the weakening of the party's hold on the community. The Rajbanshi votes were so important for a decisive victory that all the three major parties — TMC, BJP and CPI(M)-Cong alliance — fielded their candidates from the community. “North Bengal is always touted as a stronghold of the BJP, but Dhupguri has proven them wrong. Our win in Dhupguri is an indication of the BJP slipping grounds in that region. Moreover, between 2021 and 2023, the BJP could not win a single by-election in Bengal. Moreover, the party lost its three seats to the TMC,” said state TMC vice-president Jay Prakash Majumdar. While the BJP has been trying to consolidate its hold on the Rajbanshi community, the TMC has been trying to win back them. Ahead of the 2021 polls, TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee announced the formation of three new police battalions, including the “Narayani Battalion” of Cooch Behar, which had been a long-standing demand of Rajbanshis. Last year, the TMC government declared holiday on Panchanan Barma's birth anniversary on February 14. Barma was a 19th century Rajbanshi leader and social reformist. While campaigning for the bypoll, TMC general secretary Abhishek Banerjee announced that Dhupguri will be made a sub-division by the end of this year. The BJP too, in a bid to retain the support of Rajbanshis, nominated Ananta Rai Maharaj, who heads a faction of the Greater Cooch Behar Peoples’ Association (GCPA) and holds sway over a faction of Rajbanshi community, for Rajya Sabha. Ahead of the bypolls, the BJP also tried to corner Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee for her remark that she made at a rally in Kolkata on August 28. Mamata had said that she embodies the people of Bengal with Hindus and Muslims being her hands and Rajbanshi and Matua as her legs. The BJP accused her of insulting the Rajbanshi community by comparing them with her legs. Mamata then hit back at the BJP, accusing the opposition party of “deliberately misinterpreting” her statement to “inject hatred”. According to the TMC, the BJP’s move backfired. “The BJP sent Ananta Rai Maharaj, a separatist leader who wants a division of Bengal, to Rajya Sabha. This was done in desperation to garner the support of Rajbanshis. It is nothing but the narrow political attitude of the BJP which in this election backfired. The people in north Bengal have given a fitting reply to the BJP for harbouring divisive politics or promoting someone who wants a division of Bengal,” Majumdar added. However, the state BJP seems unfazed, at least on record. “We cannot come to any conclusion based on the result of a bypoll. In a by-election, the ruling party always has the upper hand. Besides, the voter turnout is always less than normal conditions. Therefore, we cannot say the result reflects the true mandate of the people.," said BJP state president Sukanta Majumdar. Nevertheless, with the BJP central leadership setting a target of winning 35 of the total 42 Lok Sabha seats in the next general elections, the task seems to be daunting for the party.
