Bypoll Today: Dhupguri, a litmus test for 3 parties & INDIA

While for the main Opposition BJP, retaining Dhupguri will be crucial for the party’s morale since it has been witnessing a series of defeats and an exodus of MLAs, a win for the TMC would pave the way for the ruling party to regain its lost ground in North Bengal. For the CPI(M), which is in alliance with the Congress, a victory in Dhupgiri will be a shot in its arm following their candidate’s victory in Sagardighi bypoll a few months ago.

But above all, the Dhupguri contest is also a test for the INDIA alliance formed by 28 parties to take on the BJP-led NDA nationwide for the next Lok Sabha elections, scheduled for early next year. While the TMC, CPI(M) and the Congress are the constituents of the INDIA bloc, they are pitted against each other in Dhupguri.

The contestants

With 60% of the electorate in this Schedule Caste-reserved seat being Rajbanshis, all three main parties have fielded their candidates from the community. Also, the three are making their electoral debut. The TMC has fielded Nirmal Chandra Roy, a professor at the local girls’ college, while the BJP has given the ticket to Tapasi Roy, whose CRPF jawan husband was killed in a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir. The CPI(M), on the other hand, has fielded famous folk artist Iswar Chandra Roy. Roy used to be a teacher in a madrasa earlier.

The vote arithmetic

The constituency, located in Jalpaiguri district, is largely agricultural with many tea gardens. It has a considerable population of Rajbanshi and Matua caste groups among its 2.6 lakh voters across 260 booths. The Congress has won this seat three times since Independence but the CPI(M) has been the dominant party here, winning the seat eight consecutive times between 1977 and 2011. The TMC’s Mitali Roy, who left the party to join the BJP on the last day of campaigning on Sunday, had won the seat in 2016 before losing to the BJP in 2021.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, BJP’s Bishnu Pada Ray garnered 45.65% votes, while TMC’s Mitali Roy 43.75%. The CPI(M) candidate, Pradeep Kumar Roy, came a distant third with just 5.73% votes.

However, in the panchayat elections held in July this year, TMC won the majority in Dhupguri gram panchayat, giving it a boost. However, the BJP claimed that the panchayat poll results did not reflect the people’s mandate as it accused the ruling party of rigging votes.

“Our fight in Dhupguri is to increase the winning margin. In 2021, we won by over 4,000 votes. This time, our target is to increase the victory margin to 24,000,” said BJP leader Samik Bhattacharya.

Why Dhupguri matters

For the BJP, a win in Dhupguri is very important. The party, which emerged as the sole opposition party in the 2021 Assembly elections by winning 77 seats in the 294 Assembly but failed to unseat TMC from power, has been witnessing a string of defeats in the elections since then. In all the seven bypolls — Bhowanipore, Dinhata, Khardah, Santipur, Gosaba, Ballygunge and Sagardighi — the BJP lost and was even pushed to the third spot in two cases.
Desperate to win, the BJP accuses CPI(M) and Congress of “helping” Mamata Banerjee’s TMC.

“The CPI(M) and Congress fielded their candidate under the direction of (chief minister) Mamata Banerjee, and they are trying to give TMC an advantage by playing the role of ‘vote katwa,” said Bhattacharya.
For the TMC too, the task is not easy. On the last day of campaigning, its former MLA and candidate in 2021, Mitali Roy, joined the BJP.

The campaign pitch

The BJP had tried to hurt TMC by sparking a row over Mamata’s remark that she made at a rally in Kolkata on August 28. Mamata had said that she embodies the people of Bengal with Hindus and Muslims being her hands and Rajbanshi and Matua as her legs.

The BJP accused her of insulting the Rajbanshi community by comparing them with her legs. Mamata then hit back at the BJP, accusing the opposition party of “deliberately misinterpreting” her statement to “inject hatred”.

“My love and respect for the Rajbanshi culture reflects in our vision and work for the upliftment of the community. Shame on the traitors of Bengal who inject their hatred into my statements of love, unity, and profound respect for our people. By deliberately misinterpreting my figure of speech, the BJP has exposed its own casteist mentality and divisive politics,” she said.

To woo Rajbanshi voters, TMC announced to make Dhupguri a sub-division by the end of this year. TMC general secretary Abhishek Banerjee also announced that Dhupguri Rural Hospital would be upgraded with specialised medical services.

Also, TMC stayed away from criticising the Congress-CPI(M) alliance following the latest INDIA bloc meeting in Mumbai. “Sagardighi Assembly bypoll taught us that minority votebank is dividing. So, to maintain the dominance on minority, we have to continue with the INDIA bloc,” a senior TMC leader said.

Interestingly, just a day before Abhishek’s rally, CPI(M) state secretary Md. Selim and Congress state president Adhir Chowdhury attacked TMC and BJP in a joint rally at Dhupguri.

Justifying it, a senior leader of the CPI(M) said, “We have made it clear that, nationally we will unitedly fight against the BJP, but we have some state-specific compulsion and that will be decided by the state leadership.”