Free bijli-paani to Mahila Samman Yojana: Why AAP’s welfare formula failed in Delhi this time

While the BJP made a stunning return to the Capital after 27 years, the AAP has been reduced to a mere 22 seats.

On the face of it, the party seems to have done everything right to beat rising anti-incumbency among the public. It launched its poll campaign last September, with a Janta ki Adalat at Jantar Mantar. This was Kejriwal’s first public meeting after he was released from jail in the liquor policy case. The party was also the first to declare candidates for all 70 Assembly seats. From September till February 3, it held different types of campaigns, public meetings, jansabhas and rallies.

What went wrong

First, the AAP’s poll manifesto, except for a few schemes, had few new things on offer. For instance, the Mahila Samman Rashi Yojana was announced during the Budget last year and promised Rs 1,000 to eligible women but it wasn’t implemented. In December, Kejriwal announced that the monthly allowance would be increased to Rs 2,100 if the AAP returned to power. Two days later, the Rs 1,000 scheme announced in the Budget was cleared by the Delhi Cabinet but it was too late.

According to an AAP leader, the delivery of Rs 1,000 could have been a game changer. “Kejriwal being in jail for months meant the scheme could not be implemented earlier. By the time it was cleared by the Cabinet, it was too late to implement as the registration portal was not ready. This proved to be the difference between loss and victory,” the leader said.

The party’s ‘employment for all’ guarantee was similar to the one in the 2022 ‘Rozgar’ Budget, in which the AAP government promised 20 lakh jobs in five years. The scheme remained on paper.

Its promise to waive inflated water bills was also something it said before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Other promises — 24×7 clean drinking water in all households in Delhi; cleaning the Yamuna; maintaining roads as per European standards; and replacing blocked and old sewer lines — have all been mentioned in previous elections and budgets.

Second, several of these subsidies were largely seen as benefitting the poor — JJ colony and lower middle-class households — who have been traditional voters of AAP.

This was reflected in the results on Saturday. Of the 22 constituencies that the AAP has won, 14 are dominated by Dalits and Muslims. Of the 12 reserved seats, the AAP won 8. Despite its defeat, the party has a 44% vote share — showing it has largely retained its support base among the city’s poor.

On the flip side, it lost out on the middle- and upper-middle-class voters who shifted to the BJP. Several residents had flagged issues over the lack of basic infrastructure development such as water, broken roads, pollution, waterlogging, and hiked electricity bills.

Third, issues in the delivery of welfare schemes caused anger among the public.

– Under its power subsidy, the government offered free electricity for up to 200 units and a 50% subsidy for up to 400 units. But between May and July last summer, several households complained of receiving inflated electricity bills — an increase of 6-8% — after the discoms revised the power purchase adjustment charges (PPAC) between 6.75% and 8.75%.

– Under its water subsidy, it offered 20,000 litres of free water. But in the past year, the public — from slums to upscale societies like Vasant Kunj — complained of scarcity, even in winter months, and dirty water. In the weeks leading up to the election, the AAP and BJP engaged in a slugfest with the former alleging the Haryana government was releasing “poisonous” water into the Yamuna.

– The AAP’s flagship mohalla clinics, Delhi government-run hospitals, and dispensaries faced a shortage of medicines and drugs owing to a government-bureaucracy tussle.

Following the party’s loss, a senior AAP leader said: “There was increased anti-incumbency because the AAP was in power for 10 years… For any party, there will be anti-incumbency… even for the BJP at the Centre… Our campaign went well but the lack of infrastructure work and the corruption that the BJP accused us of — like the liquor scam and Sheesh Mahal charge — worked in their favour.”

The leader added, “If you look at the percentage of votes, AAP has not lost its traditional base… But definitely, the BJP managed to sway the middle-class voters… We have a strong opposition and the AAP will continue to raise issues (in the House).”