Lok Sabha results 2024: In Ludhiana, highest turnout in urban West but the key might lie in rural Dakha, Jagraon

The Dakha segment has remained a jinx for the Congress, and the party has failed to win from here since 2012, in both Assembly and Lok Sabha elections.

Even for the BJP, Dakha is not going to be a cakewalk, considering the opposition that the party has faced from the farming community in Punjab.

In the fray from Ludhiana are Congress’s Punjab chief Amrinder Singh Raja Warring, BJP’s Ravneet Singh Bittu (a three-time Congress MP including twice from Ludhiana who switched to the BJP), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)’s sitting MLA from Ludhiana (Central) Ashok Parashar Pappi and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)’s Ranjit Singh Dhillon.

The urban vote

Bittu, the grandson of slain Punjab CM Beant Singh, contesting on BJP ticket this time, is largely banking on “Modi wave” and the support from Ludhiana’s industry, trade and business community.

In 2014, Bains contested as Independent (IND), and in 2019 on LIP ticket.

Bittu also made Ram Mandir pitch among Hindu community, who are largely concentrated in six urban segments.

Bittu won Ludhiana Lok Sabha seat consecutively in 2014 and 2019 on Congress ticket.

It is for the first time since 1996 that BJP is contesting solo. In 1996 Lok Sabha polls, BJP’s Satpal Gosain had contested from Ludhiana but finished third while SAD’s Amrik Singh Aliwal had won.

What might be a good news for the BJP is that the highest turnout this time has been recorded in Ludhiana West (63.34%), an urban segment with considerable Hindu population.

However, Congress’s Bharat Bhushan Ashu, a former minister and twice ex-MLA from Ludhiana West, also holds considerable support in this segment, and Warring is expected to give a tough fight to Bittu from the West.

The overall turnout in Ludhiana has been recorded at 60.12 per cent, lower than 62.16 per cent in 2019. The highest turnout was in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, when 70.49 per cent voters had come out to vote. The highest turnout this time has been recorded in urban West (63.34 per cent) and the lowest in rural Jagraon (56.79 per cent).

The Dakha jinx

For both Bittu and Warring, a lot would depend on how rural Dakha voted.

Since 2012, six elections have been held in Dakha, and Congress failed to register a single win. This rural segment has either elected a candidate from Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) or Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

In 2012 Punjab assembly polls, SAD’s Manpreet Ayali won from Dakha. In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, AAP’s Harvinder Singh Phoolka won Dakha (even as he lost overall seat to Bittu).

Phoolka repeated the feat for AAP in 2017 Punjab assembly polls and was elected as the MLA from Dakha, only to resign later.

In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Dakha was won by Lok Insaaf Party (LIP)’s Simarjeet Singh Bains (even as he lost the overall battle to Bittu).

In 2019 Dakha bypoll, after Phoolka’s resignation, SAD’s Ayali again won, even as Congress government was in power in Punjab.

In 2022 Assembly elections, even as AAP stormed to power in the state with brute majority, Dakha voted for SAD’s Ayali.

Congress bastion since 2009

The Congress has been winning Ludhiana Lok Sabha seat since 2009 (Manish Tewari and Bittu in 2014 and 2019).

In 2022 Assembly polls, all fourteen assembly segments in Ludhiana district were swept by AAP, except Dakha from where SAD had won.

In 2014 Lok Sabha battle, Bittu had defeated AAP’s Phoolka in a close contest by mere 19,709 votes. Even as Phoolka had won four assembly segments (West, Dakha, Jagraon and Gill), yet Bittu with three (Central, North and East) emerged winner. Two other segments (South and Atam Nagar) were won by LIP’s Simarjeet Singh Bains.

Then in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, AAP faced complete rout in Ludhiana. Bittu again emerged victorious, defeating Bains by over 76,000 votes and winning five of nine segments. Bittu had won Central, North, East, Jagraon and West while Bains won Gill, Atam Nagar, South and Dakha.

From Ludhiana Central- from where AAP candidate Pappi is the sitting MLA- Bittu had emerged victorious in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The eyes would also be on Atam Nagar and Ludhiana South this time, the bastions of Bains brothers (ex-MLAs Simarjeet Bains and his elder brother Balwinder Bains), who have now moved to the Congress and campaigned for Warring.