Punjab businessmen hope to resume trade with Pak following BJP assurances

Trade with Pakistan was first hit after an imposition of 200 per cent duty by the Indian government following the Pulwama attack in February 2019 which saw the death of 40 CRPF personnel. Later, the Pakistan government officially suspended trade with India in August 2019 following the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir.

Trade through the ICP at the Attari-Wagah border with Pakistan has decreased gradually since the Narendra Modi government first came to power in 2014.

A basmati rice trader, on condition of anonymity said, “Earlier this month, a delegation of the Union commerce ministry visited Amritsar. We had a good meeting but they don’t want us to name Pakistan. In fact, we have stopped writing to the government to open trade with Pakistan too as they are not ready to listen to our demands. The trade ban has badly affected the economy of Amritsar.”

On July 14 and 15, 2022, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) Minister for Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare Kuldeep Singh Dhaliwal had made a proposal at the National Conference of State Agriculture and Horticulture Ministers held in Bengaluru to reopen trade with Pakistan. However, he fell silent when the BJP attacked his party for demanding trade with Pakistan.

Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal have also demanded opening trade via the ICP and so has present Congress MP Gurjeet Singh Aujla.

Former Ambassador to the United States, Taranjit Singh, who recently joined the BJP and is likely to get a poll ticket from Amritsar, said the city’s economic and income growth potential will increase manifold with improved connectivity across the Indo-Pacific region, in the Gulf countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia and other regions. He has also spoken about the immense scope for growth in agriculture, industry, commerce, healthcare, tourism and many other sectors.

Rajinder Singh Marwaha, Chairman World Sikh Chamber of Commerce, said, “I recently met Taranjit Singh Sandhu. I raised the demand to open the trade through the ICP Attari. I was surprised that he was quite positive about it and assured me to raise the matter with the Union government. Now we are hopeful.”

As of now, India is only trading with Afghanistan via the Attari-Wagah border.

The Attari-Wagah land route was first opened in 2005 and truck movement on this route began in 2007. The ICP at Attari was inaugurated on April 13, 2012, under the UPA government, with provisions of facilities for fast and cost-effective land trade.

In 2013-14, the India-Pakistan trade through the ICP stood at Rs 5,443 crore, up from Rs 4,800 crore in 2012-13. In 2014, a government calculation put the trade potential at $10 billion (approximately Rs 6,300 crore).

However, the figures started declining as soon as the BJP, which took an aggressive stand towards Pakistan, came to power under Modi. After falling consecutively, the ICP trade figures stood at Rs 3,970 crore by 2016-17. A slight rise was recorded in 2017-18 and 2018-19 to Rs 4,148 crore and Rs 4,370 crore, respectively, but nowhere close to the estimated potential.

One sided trade with Afghanistan has seen an increase in the current financial year and registered trade of Rs 3,100 crore (5,747 trucks) in the first eight months till December 2023 has been recorded. It is the highest purchase from Afghanistan since 2019.

A 2022 study by the Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development, an autonomous institute supported by government body Indian Council of Social Science Research, on the ‘Economic Implications of Trade Curbs between India and Pakistan through Wagah Border’ noted: “…eventually this may provide the transit-route to Middle East. This would be possible if both India and Pakistan acknowledge the economic rationale of trade through this route and the north-western states of India and the Punjab state of Pakistan persuade their national governments to encourage and promote trade through this route.”

“We stood behind the government in the wake of the Pulwama attack. Government decided to pull restrictions on trade and we didn’t complain. Now, the time has come that the government should consider opening trade with Pakistan and beyond Pakistan,” said Rajdeep Uppal, an international trader.

“We can trade with Central Asia through the ICP. Farmers will be able to sell the crop. Industry will be able to sell the products. There is a huge market waiting for us in Central Asia. Even now, Indian trade with Pakistan is on via Iran and Dubai. It is costing more to everyone. If the governments open the border, then it will be a big economic development for India as well as Pakistan,” said Marwaha.