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Rupee hits record closing low, forward premiums extend decline

The RBI will deliver its policy decision on Friday, with traders expecting some form of monetary policy easing this week after weak GDP data for the July-September quarter.

The rupee closed at 84.74 against the U.S. dollar, its lifetime closing low, down from 84.6850 in the previous session. (Image: Pexel)

The Indian rupee logged its weakest closing level on record on Wednesday, hurt by a lingering deprecation bias and broad-based dollar bids while dollar-rupee forward premiums extended their decline.

The rupee closed at 84.74 against the U.S. dollar, its lifetime closing low, down from 84.6850 in the previous session.
The rupee was unable to benefit from gains in most of its Asian peers, including the offshore Chinese yuan which rose 0.2% to 7.28 after hitting a one-year low on Tuesday.

At this point, “USD/INR is a buy on any dips,” a trader at a large private bank said. “There is only one direction of travel right now but the speed depends on how stiffly the Reserve Bank of India will act,” the trader said.

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The RBI was likely conducting dollar-rupee buy/sell swaps in the mid-to-far tenors on Wednesday, traders said which weighed down forward premiums.

The 1-year dollar-rupee implied yield fell to a four-month low of 1.95%, having declined nearly 30 basis points over three sessions.
While selling forward dollars allows the RBI to stave off impact on headline foreign exchange reserves and rupee liquidity, a large decline in premiums can add to challenges in curbing further weakness, analysts said.

The dollar index was up 0.1% at 106.5 as attention turned to the potential of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this month. Remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be in focus later in the day.

The RBI will deliver its policy decision on Friday, with traders expecting some form of monetary policy easing this week after weak GDP data for the July-September quarter.

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“We do not expect a rate cut yet as INR is under significant pressure, but do forecast a dovish tone/guidance in view of the noteworthy slowdown in the economy,” analysts at Nuvama Research said in a note.

According to the police, the woman, who is a teacher, has been living separately from her husband for several years due to a marital dispute. She lives in a rented house along with her 14-year-old son, they said.

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