A vision document aimed at making India a developed country is in its final stages and a draft is expected to be ready by December, NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam said on Sunday. The document will be made public in three months, he added. Ten sectoral groups of secretaries (SGoS) from various ministries created around themes including infrastructure, welfare, commerce and industry, technology, and governance have each prepared a vision document in a process that lasted nearly two years. NITI Aayog, which was tasked with the consolidation of the ten sectoral thematic visions in July this year, has also forecasted that India’s economy will be worth $30 trillion in 2047, with a per capita GDP of $17,590. While Subrahmanyam did not divulge on the content of the draft vision document being consolidated by NITI Aayog, he added that the document states the sectors and technologies in which India should be leading by 2047 and addresses institutional and structural reforms required to get there. He also stated that the final ‘Viksit Bharat @ 2047’ document will be critical in helping India avoid the middle-income trap, which remains a major concern in policy circles. Subrahmanyam shared that the ten SGoS started preparing their respective vision documents in December 2021 based on guidance notes and common economic parameters and projections given by the Ministry of Finance. The ten SGoS, based on themes of rural and agriculture, infrastructure, resources, social vision, welfare, finance and economy, commerce and industry, technology, governance, and security and foreign affairs, have also undertaken widespread consultations with various think tanks, research institutions, industry chambers, and export promotion councils. For example, the SGoG on commerce and industry consulted over 20,000 people. The apex policy think tank has also announced plans for consultation with thought leaders like Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani, Nandan Nilekani, N Chandrasekaran, among several others in the final week of November. The ten SGoS have also created their vision documents keeping in mind eight megatrends expected to shape the world by 2050, which include India and Africa’s evolving demography, higher income polarisation, upsurge in climatic catastrophes, and various disruptive trends relating to technological advances and geopolitical risks. NITI Aayog is also helping Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh prepare their vision documents while other states like Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Goa, and Uttarakhand are preparing their documents independently. When asked about how NITI Aayog plans to align states’ vision documents with the national vision document, Subrahmanyam said, “That’s one of the questions we’re struggling with. I think NITI will have to do some hand-holding. The good thing is that most of the states are only preparing vision documents for the next five years while we’re doing it for much longer. We will play a role from now on as it's a serious exercise.” The preliminary results from NITI Aayog’s forecasting also predict that India’s exports will be valued at $8.67 trillion in 2047 while its imports will be valued at $12.12 trillion. The apex policy think tank also predicts India’s average life expectancy to jump to 71.8 from 67.2 in 2021 and its literacy rate to 89.8 per cent from 77.8 per cent in 2021. “2047 will be a very different India. It will be highly urbanised. Where we live, the way we move, the kind of jobs we do, what we eat– things are going to change massively by that time. The way the government is structured also has to change,” Subrahmanyam said. He added that the government needs radical restructuring, both horizontally and vertically, such that the lower levels of government be entirely tasked with implementation so that senior officials can spend more time ideating. Last week, it was announced that the consulting firm BCG has also been hired by the government to assist in preparing the ‘Viksit Bharat @ 2047’ document, which was first envisaged by PM Modi in December 2021.
