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This is an archive article published on September 12, 2015

CAD shrinks to 1.2 % on higher earnings, trade deficit decline

Experts say it is likely to fall further in the current year but pick up next year

Aided by a decline in trade deficit, higher earnings through services and NRI deposits, India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to $6.2 billion (1.2 per cent of GDP) in April-June, 2015-16, from $7.8 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) a year ago.

According to the Reserve Bank of India, this improvement was mainly on account of the merchandise trade deficit ($34.2 billion during Q1 of 2015-16) which contracted on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis due to a larger absolute decline in merchandise imports relative to merchandise exports. “The reduction in the CAD was also enabled by higher net earnings through services and lower outflow on account of primary income (profit, dividend and interest),” the RBI said.

“Private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, amounted to $16.2 billion, a marginal decline from their level a year ago,” it said. In the financial account, net inflows of foreign direct investment were higher on a y-o-y basis, however, portfolio investment declined sharply, almost entirely in the debt segment, the RBI said.

Meanwhile, experts said CAD is likely to fall further in the current year and pick up next year. “As the situation stands today, we see the CAD/GDP in a sub-1 per cent zone in FY16, rising to 1.5 per cent in FY17 — within the comfort zone of the RBI. Despite recent trends on FPI not too comforting, we do not think there is any immediate worry for the BoP,” IDFC said in a report.

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