Shrinking farm trade fortunes: India’s farm exports vs. imports (In $ billion)

But lower exports apart, the shrinkage in the farm trade surplus was also due to imports going up from $15.5 billion to $ 20.2 billion last year, largely on account of the two big-ticket items: edible oils and pulses. In 2014-15, edible oil imports were valued at $9.67 billion, while being $2.79 billion for pulses. The fact that their imports were only $2.47 billion and $395.62 million, respectively, in 2004-05 is a pointer to the country’s growing lack of self-sufficiency in the two commodities.

In the current year, India’s agri exports are likely to be under continued pressure, as world demand and commodity prices show little signs of recovery. But imports — especially of edible oils and pulses — may rise with the prospect of a weak monsoon and domestic output shortfalls. The result: a further shrinkage of the farm trade surplus.