Decoding the data: The EBC vote, last swung by BJP, now unpredictable as ever

While there are indications of some preference among the EBCs for the BJP, at this moment it is not clear which way they will go and that is what makes their vote so important. Among the OBCs, Yadavs (15 per cent) and Kurmis/Koeris (11 per cent) constitute a significant share of the upper OBCs, and large numbers are likely to vote on predictable lines, Yadavs for Lalu Prasad and Kurmis for Nitish.

In the voting pattern of OBCs for the last few elections, there is enough evidence that voters of various sub-groups have voted for parties of their caste. The consolidation of Yadav support for Lalu’s RJD is much stronger than the support of other caste groups for various parties. While the Kurmis and Koeris have consistently voted for Nitish’s JD(U), his Kurmi community is numerically much smaller than the Yadavs.

In some elections, the EBCs have seemed inclined towards the RJD and in others for the JD(U) and the BJP. The shift of the lower OBC castes in favour of the JD(U) and BJP began during the October 2005 assembly elections. In 2009 and 2010, 57 and 55 per cent of lower OBC castes respectively voted for the JD(U)-BJP alliance. Findings from the 2014 NES post-poll survey indicate a massive shift of lower OBC voters towards the BJP that year.

The breakup of the BJP-JD(U) alliance made the 2014 poll a three-way contest. The BJP drew votes from all OBC sections, including the core support groups of the RJD and the JD(U), Yadavs and Kurmis, among whom the BJP got 15 and 16 per cent respectively.

After the RJD and the JD(U) announced an alliance, conventional caste calculus might get scrambled and it is believed that the upcoming elections will not be a walk in the park for either alliance. We try to look at what can work for and against both alliances.

JD(U)-RJD-Congress

The RJD’s decision of accepting Nitish as the CM candidate for their alliance could turn away Yadavs, who have often blamed Nitish for their declining influence in politics. On the other hand, many non-Yadavs may remember Lalu’s earlier tenure for absence of law and order, lack of development and corruption. Pappu Yadav, a five-time MP who has left the RJD to form his own party, may split the Yadav vote in some seats.

What can work for this alliance are caste alignments. If Lalu and Nitish had contested separately, there could have been a repeat of 2014. The NDA could have swept the elections due to a division of the anti-BJP vote. Nitish may have had some advantage among EBC voters, for whom he created a quota in civic bodies as soon as he came to power, besides implementing health schemes.

BJP-led NDA

As of now, the BJP has not announced a CM candidate; announcing either an upper caste or a backward caste candidate can work against the NDA. After the impressive victory last year, there may be some decline in Modi’s popularity due to a gap between what he promised and what he has delivered so far. But there still are factors that work in favour of the NDA for winning EBC votes.

One could question if lower OBCs would support the BJP in numbers as large as in 2014. With Upendra Kushwaha on its side and a campaign that reminds voters of the PM’s OBC background, the BJP may be able to corner a sizeable proportion of these votes.

The results of the upcoming elections will have a major impact on Modi’s authority and also be a test for the so-called secular alliance of the Janata parivar. A defeat for the BJP would indicate that its loss in Delhi was not an outlier and there has been a gradual decline in popularity. It can also give Modi’s opponents in the party a chance to challenge his dominance.

The lower OBCs will play a big role as the upper OBCs are likely to stay aligned with the JD(U)-RJD. It is not necessary that there would be another Modi wave. At the same time, we do not know whether the JD(U)-RJD alliance would be welcomed by the people. With pre-poll surveys indicating a close contest at present, only the results will tell which alliance will prevail in the battle for Bihar.

Sanjay Kumar is professor and director, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies; Vibha Attri is a researcher with Lokniti-CSDS

This article is part of a series from Lokniti-CSDS that analyses various dimensions of Bihar politics using evidence from surveys conducted by Lokniti over the last two decades