53 instances of deficient rainfall in last 114 yrs: Met department

While El Nino years such as 2002 recorded 19.2 per cent deficiency, 2004 – 13.8 per cent deficiency, and 2009 – 21.8 per cent deficiency, 1997 recorded 2 per cent excess rainfall despite it being an El Nino year. In 1991, there was less rainfall in all the monsoon months, recording deficiency of 9.3 per cent.

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According to the data, the El Nino years in the last two decades too have shown high rain deficiency. While in 1987, the deficiency recorded was 19.4 per cent, in 1986 it was 12.7 per cent.

“On several instances there has been a deficiency of over 12 per cent as can been seen in the data collated by the IMD over the century,’’ said senior Met officials.
Interestingly, last year which was not an El Nino year, there was a deficiency of 11.9 per cent.

At present, the all India monsoon deficiency is at 9 per cent and the Met officials have stuck to their forecast of “deficient” monsoon by scaling it further to 12 per cent.

“It’s an El Nino year and in our long range forecast in June we had clearly stated that the rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 88 per cent of LPA, with a model error of plus or minus four. With the prevailing El Nino conditions, the overall rainfall for the season is likely to be deficient by 12 per cent,’’ said Dr S Pai, lead scientist at long range forecast department in Pune.

With the El-Nino phenomenon strengthening from weak to moderate, the rainfall distribution will continue to be subdued, said officials.

“We had said that the second half of the season is likely to be 84 per cent of LPA, with a model plus or minus of eight,” added officials.

The first half of the season recorded mixed rainfall, with June recording 116 per cent of LPA and July 83 per cent, which was deficient.