Exit Poll 2023 Live Updates: Amit Shah; K Chandrashekar Rao; Priyanka Gandhi with Revanth ReddyTelangana Exit Poll Results 2023 Live Updates: After polling for the Assembly elections in five states came to a close with the triangular contest in Telangana on Thursday, most pollsters predicted an advantage for Congress.
In Telangana, while the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is looking forward to a third consecutive term, a re-furbished Congress and a confident Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have too put up a tough fight hoping to make a mark. The 2018 assembly elections saw BRS emerging victorious by clinching 88 out of 119 seats with Congress as a distant second with 19 seats. The BJP, on the other hand, could secure only one seat even though it fielded candidates in all, but one, constituencies.
Follow Live Updates on Exit Polls results from five states
In the run up to the elections, the BRS and its principal rival Congress turned free power supply for farmers into a highly debated poll issue through their high-octane and vitriolic campaigns. The BRS government led by Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao or KCR has touted its initiative to provide free electricity to farmers for 24 hours a day in the party’s campaign for a third consecutive term.
Exit polls aired by major television networks Thursday predicted that the Congress could retain power in Chhattisgarh and oust the BRS from government in Telangana. The polls differed on the outcome in crucial Hindi heartland states Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and predicted that the north-eastern state of Mizoram could be headed for a hung Assembly.
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As exit polls predicted an advantage for Congress, party leader Imran Pratapgarhi said its campaign was successful and highlighted the corruption by the KC Rao government.
Most exit polls predicted an edge to the Congress in Chhattisgarh and Telangana while forecasting that it was advantage BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Pollsters also indicated that in Mizoram, Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) was locked in a close race with the Mizo National Front (MNF) with the Congress and the BJP lagging behind.
Madhya Pradesh: While Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicted that the BJP would get 100-123 seats and the Congress 102-125, Republic TV-Matrize forecast 118-130 seats for the BJP and 97-107 for the Congress.TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstrat said the BJP would get 106-116 and the Congress would get 111-121. Today's Chanakya, however, predicted a massive victory for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, forecasting that the BJP would get 151 (plus minus 12 seats) and the Congress 74 (plus minus 12 seats). Jist-TIF-NAI said the Congress was enjoying 2018-like edge in Madhya Pradesh, predicting 107-124 seats for the party as against the BJP's 102-119.
Rajasthan: India Today-Axis My India forecast a tight race, predicting 86-106 seats for the Congress, 80-100 seats for the BJP and others 9-18. Jan Ki Baat pollsters forecast that the BJP would get 100-122 and 62-85 for the Congress, TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstrat predicted 100-110 for the BJP and 90-100 for the Congress. Times Now ETG poll predicts 108-128 seats for the BJP and 56-72 for the Congress in Rajasthan. Jist-TIF-NAI predicted that in Rajasthan there would be continuation of the state's revolving door tradition, forecasting 110 seats for the BJP and the Congress 70.
Chhattisgarh: While ABP News-C Voter predicted 36-48 seats for the BJP and 41-53 for the Congress, India Today-Axis My India forecast 36-46 seats for the BJP and 40-50 seats for the Congress. India TV-CNX forecast 30-40 seats for the BJP and 46-56 seats for the Congress. According to Jan Ki Baat, the BJP would get 34-45 and the Congress would get 42-53. Today's Chanakya predicted that the BJP would get 33 seats (plus-minus 8 seats) and the Congress would bag a clear majority 57 seats (plus-minus 8).
Telangana: While India TV-CNX forecast 63-79 seats for the Congress, 31-47 for the BRS, 2-4 for the BJP and 5-7 for the AIMIM, Jan Ki Baat forecast that the Congress would get 48-64 seats, the BRS would get 40-55, BJP 7-13 and AIMIM 4-7. Republic TV-Matrize predicted that in Telangana, the Congress would get 58-68 seats, BRS 46-56, BJP 4-9 and AIMIM 5-9. TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstrat stated that the Congress would get 49-59 seats and the BRS would get 48-58.
Mizoram: While India TV-CNX said the MNF would get 14-18, ZPM 12-16, Congress 8-10 and BJP 0-2, ABP News-C Voter said MNF would get 15-21, ZPM 12-18 and Congress 2-8. Jan Ki Baat said the MNF would get 10-14 seats, ZPM 15-25 seats, Congress 5-9 and the BJP 0-2.
Dismissing some exit poll surveys that suggested that the ruling BRS is going to lose in the assembly polls, the party's Working President K T Rama Rao said the party led by Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar would come back to power with over 70 seats.
Addressing a press conference, Rama Rao said that in 2018 some of the exit polls had wrongly predicted that BRS would lose, but the results proved otherwise. "I promise you, for those of you who are friends of BRS and want KCR to come back..., I promise you on December 3 (counting day) we are coming back. We are coming back with anywhere above 70 seats,” he said.
Rama Rao also suggested that some of the survey firms should apologise if their predictions go wrong. He also found fault with the Election Commission for allowing exit polls to be aired at 5.30 PM even while some of the voters were still in queue to vote.
Between now and Sunday, when the results come for the Assembly elections to five states, a lot of the analysis will be centred on the exit polls whose data was released Thursday evening. But experience shows that there is no guarantee of accuracy when it comes to exit polls — which are as likely as to be accurate as wildly off the mark.
In the 2018 Assembly polls, the averages of the selected exit polls here were off by only a handful of seats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, but their predictions were inaccurate by a considerable margin for Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram.
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The News 24-Today's Chanakya exit polls has predicted a landslide victory for the Congress-led alliance, with 71 seats. The BRS is likely to get 33 seats, the BJP-led front will get seven seats and the AIMIM will fail to open its account.
BRS: 48-58
Congress: 49-59
BJP: 5-10
AIMIM: 6-8
With results of the five assembly polls to come in Sunday, a reminder might be useful of some of the political things that will remain standing, irrespective of who wins and who loses.
By all accounts, at the national level, the Narendra Modi-led BJP has been adding layers to its appeal ever since its 2014 victory. But no matter what the final scoreboard says, this round of assembly elections points to at least one critical area of subtraction, and underlines a key BJP challenge: The agility and inventiveness that it has shown towards maintaining its dominance at the Centre is not matched in the states by the party. It is arguably an acknowledgement of this reality that has contributed to its strategy of making even the state election a referendum on the performance of the government led by Modi.
Vandita Mishra writes...
As the poll fever for the five Assembly elections winds down – even though both Rajasthan and Telengana have become unexpectedly exciting, with the Congress putting up a fight – it’s time to capture some broad trends.
What is striking are the areas where a consensus is now developing across parties, and one of them is the need to provide social welfarism – call it freebies, doles, handouts, what you will – as part of a safety net. The Congress and BJP are vying with each other to promise – and mount – new welfare schemes.
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In a video that went viral on Monday, Congress workers in Madhya Pradesh’s Balaghat were seen confronting election officials for opening the strong room where postal ballots had been stored, raising questions about the security of the ballots and electronic voting machines (EVMs).
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Polling concluded peacefully in the 13 assembly segments affected by Left Wing Extremism (LWE) in Telangana at 4 PM, officials said, adding that 51.89 per cent votes were cast by 3 PM in the total 119 constituencies in the state.
While polling was to conclude at 4 PM in the LWE-affected constituencies, those who were in queue at closing time were allowed to cast their vote.
There were no untoward incidents in these areas, a senior police official told PTI. Chief Electoral Officer Vikas Raj told reporters that polling went about with any problems, except for minor skirmishes at one or two places.
Congress: 56
BRS: 58
How does the common man judge which exit poll is most reliable? Rely on the one whose numbers you like the most and dismiss the one whose numbers you dislike? Today, some even judge the accuracy of an exit poll by looking at the survey agency that conducted the poll, or by looking at the television channel that commissioned the poll. Some others make a judgment from the sample size — a commonly shared notion is that the bigger the sample size, the more reliable should be the exit poll.
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The list of important constituencies includes Gajwel, Huzurabad, Korutla, Maheshwaram, Goshamahal, Mahbubnagar, LB Nagar, Warangal East and West, Bhupalapally, Khairatabad, Amberpet, Boath, Nirmal, Adilabad, Ramagundam, Peddapalli, Kothagudem, Armoor, Nizamabad Urban, Patancheru, Serilingampally, Husnabad, Dubbak, Kalwakurthy, and others.
Incumbent Chief Minister and the founder of BRS, K Chandrashekar Rao, or KCR, is contesting from two seats: his original seat, Gajwel, and Kamareddy. In the 2018 elections, KCR secured a victory in Gajwel by over 58,000 votes. This time, he faces BJP leader Etela Rajender in Gajwel and Congress state unit chief Revanth Reddy in Kamareddy.
His son and Telangana minister K T Rama Rao is contesting from the Sircilla seat, which he won in 2018 by a significant margin of over 89,000 votes.
While the BJP has an ambitious goal of seeing its first government in Telangana, the Congress is hoping to come to power on the basis of the “momentum” of the past few months. But the party has a huge, almost 18 percent gap to cover in terms of voting percentage of previous assembly elections.
In last elections in 2018, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) won by securing 88 seats. The Congress was runners up with 19 seats, and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) won just two seats. The BJP secured one seat; the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) won seven seats, and independent candidates claimed one seat.
The high-stakes Telangana Assembly elections are witnessing a triangular contest involving the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress. Voting was held on Thursday (November 30) for the 119-member state Legislative Assembly.
Telangana is one of the five states which went to polls in November 2023 ahead of the 2024 general elections next year. The results will be announced on December 3 (Sunday).