Delhi: At 11 constituencies, a trend of picking winning side

Since 1993, when the first assembly polls were held, 11 bellwether seats have invariably been choosing MLAs whose party goes on to rule the state.

At least 11 assembly constituencies in the capital could hold the key to who wins. (File)

Amid exit polls and internal party estimates, at least 11 assembly constituencies in the capital could hold the key to who wins. Since 1993, when the first assembly polls were held, these 11 bellwether seats — New Delhi (Gole Market till 2003), Malviya Nagar, Madipur, Patparganj, Gandhi Nagar, Chandni Chowk, Timarpur, Model Town, Sadar Bazar, Patel Nagar and Karol Bagh — have invariably been choosing MLAs whose party goes on to rule the state.

The AAP won all but one seat with a victory margin of more than 15,000 votes in 2015. The lowest victory margin was witnessed in Gandhi Nagar (7,482). The party bagged eight of the 11 seats with a margin of more than 20,000 votes — the highest (34,315) in Sadar Bazar.

All but one of the 11 runners-up were from BJP.

This time, the AAP has repeated its nominees on seven of the 11 seats, and dropped two. The other two MLAs have quit the party.

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Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is looking to retain the high-stakes New Delhi seat after being elected from the constituency in 2013 and 2015. In 2013, he defeated then Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit with a margin of 25,864 votes, and the gap widened to 31,583 votes in 2015 against BJP’s Nupur Sharma. This time, BJP’s Sunil Yadav and Congress’s Romesh Sabharwal are up against him.

In Patparganj, AAP has once again fielded Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia against BJP’s Ravi Negi and Congress’s Lakshman Rawat. In the previous election, Sisodia defeated BJP’s Vinod Kumar Binny by 28,791 votes.

A cliffhanger may be on the cards in Chandni Chowk. Four-time MLA Parlad Singh Sawhney, who has switched from Congress, is the AAP candidate, while Alka Lamba will fight on a Congress ticket after leaving AAP. In the previous election, Lamba won the seat on an AAP ticket by 18,287 votes.

Gandhi Nagar is not dissimilar either. Senior Congress leader Arvinder Singh Lovely will take on Naveen Choudhary of AAP and BJP’s Anil Kumar Bajpai. Bajpai was elected from the constituency on an AAP ticket in 2015, and switched to BJP just before the Lok Sabha polls. Choudhary recently quit Congress to join AAP.

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In Timarpur, the AAP dropped sitting MLA Pankaj Pushkar and fielded Lok Sabha candidate Dilip Pandey. Similarly, the party has denied a ticket to its Patel Nagar MLA Hazari Lal Chauhan and fielded Raaj Kumar Anand against Congress veteran Krishna Tirath and BJP’s Pravesh Ratan.

On the other hand, the party has repeated Akhilesh Pati Tripathi against Congress’s Akansha Ola and party rebel Kapil Mishra, who joined BJP, from the Model Town assembly seat.

In Madipur, the AAP has repeated Girish Soni, who will lock horns with BJP’s Kailash Shankla and Jai Prakash Panwar of Congress. Soni trounced BJP’s Raj Kumar by 29,387 votes in 2015.

The AAP has reposed its faith in Vishesh Ravi for the Karol Bagh seat. Last time, he won with a margin of 32,880 votes.

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BJP’s Jai Prakash eyes to wrest back the Sadar Bazar seat from AAP’s incumbent MLA Som Dutt, who won by a margin of 34,315 votes in 2015.

AAP’s Somnath Bharti is seeking a re-election from Malviya Nagar against BJP’s Shailender Singh Monty. In 2015, Bharti’s winning margin was 15,897 votes.