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Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City, is ahead of his rivals in the latest poll, but his advantage could shrink if the race narrows to two candidates, according to a survey by The New York Times and Siena College.
The poll, conducted from 2 to 6 September, found that 46 per cent of likely voters would back Mamdani. Former governor Andrew M. Cuomo, running as an independent, polled at 24 per cent, while Republican Curtis Sliwa stood at 15 per cent and incumbent mayor Eric Adams at 9 per cent.
The Times reported that if both Adams and Sliwa left the race, Cuomo would pick up much of their support. In a head-to-head contest, the poll suggested Mamdani would have 48 per cent against Cuomo’s 44 per cent.
The newspaper noted that discussions have taken place about persuading Adams to suspend his campaign, with one option being a role in the Trump administration. Advisers have also considered ways to encourage Sliwa to exit the race.
Support for Mamdani is rooted in his affordability agenda, the poll showed. Nearly 70 per cent of respondents supported his proposal to freeze rent increases for rent-stabilised homes, including many of Cuomo’s and Adams’s backers.
When asked which candidate would best handle affordability, 49 per cent named Mamdani, compared with 23 per cent for Cuomo. On housing, he led by 46 per cent to Cuomo’s 24 per cent.
Mamdani was also seen as the candidate who had best addressed the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. Forty-three per cent favoured his position, compared with 16 per cent for Cuomo. The Times noted that Mamdani has been outspoken in his criticism of Israel and has called its actions in Gaza genocide.
At the same time, the poll revealed doubts about whether Mamdani could deliver on all his promises. About two-thirds of voters, including more than half of his own supporters, said they did not expect him to achieve everything he had pledged.
Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations, still faces scepticism. The poll found that more than 80 per cent of voters believe he did something wrong or illegal.
The survey of 1,284 likely voters has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.
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