US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is currently leading former Republican President Donald Trump by four percentage points in three key battleground states—Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. This lead is based on recent polls conducted by the New York Times and Siena College. In these surveys, which were carried out between August 5 and August 9, Harris secured 50% of the support compared to Trump's 46% among likely voters in each state. The margin of sampling error for these polls was plus or minus 4.8 percentage points in Michigan, plus or minus 4.2 points in Pennsylvania, and plus or minus 4.3 points in Wisconsin. Overall, 1,973 likely voters participated in these polls. Democratic US President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid on July 21 and endorsed Harris for the Nov. 5 vote against Trump after a disastrous debate performance against Trump in late June. Harris' ascent has revitalised a campaign that had previously struggled amid skepticism within the Democratic Party regarding Biden's ability to defeat Trump or effectively govern if re-elected. According to the registered voters surveyed, Harris is seen as more intelligent, more honest, and better suited temperamentally to lead the country compared to Trump. Support for Israel's ongoing conflict in Gaza, which has resulted in tens of thousands of casualties and a severe humanitarian crisis following Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel, has sparked significant protests and criticism of the Biden administration, particularly in Michigan. This opposition has been notably pronounced among some liberal, Muslim-American, and Arab-American groups. Approximately 200,000 individuals across these three states were "uncommitted" in the Democratic primaries, primarily due to concerns over Gaza policy. Although Harris has made strong public statements on Palestinian human rights and adjusted her tone, she has not presented any significant policy changes from Biden on Gaza. Polling data indicated that Trump had gained a lead over Biden, including in key battleground states, following Biden's debate performance. However, Harris' entry into the race has shifted the dynamics. An Ipsos poll released on Thursday revealed that Harris leads Trump nationally by 42% to 37% for the November 5 election. This nationwide online poll, conducted from August 2 to August 7 with 2,045 US adults, has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points. On Saturday, the Harris and Walz held a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, a state Biden-Harris won by over two points in 2020. Recent surveys show 60% of independent voters are satisfied with the presidential candidates, up from 45% in May, likely due to positive perceptions of Harris. In Pennsylvania, Harris' favourability has increased by 10 points since last month. Harris needs to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan to secure the White House for Democrats. Meanwhile, Trump is reportedly frustrated by the recent shift in momentum since naming JD Vance as his running mate. - With Inputs from Reuters
