Want to beat Novak Djokovic at the US Open? Better get your first serve in

Despite being the World No. 9, Fritz, in his maiden US Open quarterfinal, displayed some rookie mistakes in front of an opponent who has made an enduring legacy of swatting aside players with those tendencies. Despite fashioning 12 break points, Fritz only converted two, and his wastefulness was equally apparent in him repeatedly missing his first serve, especially on crucial points, throughout the encounter.

Novak Djokovic refuses to be defeated in #USOpen quarterfinals. pic.twitter.com/MKdhLmUCMU

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 5, 2023

Fritz is a member of a promising generation of American men’s players – including Ben Shelton, who defeated another, Frances Tiafoe, in the other quarterfinal on Tuesday – that have mostly developed their games on hard courts, basing them around first-strike aggression with a combination of big serves and forehands. Those strengths are nullified against arguably the best returner in the history of the game—it might explain his 0-8 losing record against Djokovic – but failing to make first serves will make matters worse.

In the first set, Fritz played entirely into Djokovic’s hands by making less than half of his first serves. The result: he did not win a single game on serve. Throughout much of the second and third sets, the trend continued, Fritz keeping his first-serve success-rate at around 55%, and then losing a whopping 72% of the points of his second serve.

When asked to dissect his disappointing defeat in his post-match press conference, Fritz said just as much: “Obviously Novak being Novak, he’ll make me feel like I’m serving, you know, worse than I am. But, in other matches I wouldn’t get, I guess, as punished for missing so many first serves. I can maybe get away with it, but with him, I have to serve better than 50%, and I have to hit my spots better. That’s just how it is.”

“It’s not rocket science. I’m not going to be able to beat him or hang with him when he just gets to return second serves all day or my first serves are just going to him,” he added.

Sep 5, 2023; Flushing, NY, USA; Novak Djokovic of Serbia reacts after wining a point against Taylor Fritz of the United States (not pictured) on day nine of the 2023 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. (Reuters)

Isolating weakness

It’s a trend that has followed each of Djokovic’s five outings at the US Open so far. Famously using early encounters to fine-tune his game ahead of the late stages, Djokovic has developed an expertise in isolating opponents’ weaknesses, especially those that play into his strengths, and simply wearing them down. His aggression while returning second serves has been one of those major patterns.

In five matches, he averages 64.2% points won while returning second serves. For each of his opponents, that not only enhances the pressure on the first serve, but also means the Serb needs fewer opportunities to break serve when he is winning two-thirds of the points on their second.

The only outlier in Djokovic’s run to the semifinal was in the third round against Laslo Djere, a genuine scare when his formidable countryman pushed him to the brink and caused him to recover from a two-set deficit. Much of Djere’s impressive performance was built around Djokovic-inspired traits, including his tendency to stay tight to the baseline and take the ball early, as well as a dominant backhand down-the-line.

3 – Only three left-handed players have defeated Novak Djokovic in a Grand Slam match (Rafael Nadal, Fernando Verdasco, Jurgen Melzer), Nadal is the only player to do it in the last decade. Rarity. #USOpen #USOpen2023 | @usopen @atptour pic.twitter.com/tCMz6VvUAG

— OptaAce (@OptaAce) September 6, 2023

But those points were built around his impressive numbers on serve. In the first two sets, he only dropped his first serve 16 times, and won 11 of those points. In fact, in the second set, he only dropped it thrice, and won two of those points.

In the final three sets, Djokovic predictably raised his level to manage the deficit the way he had done on three other occasions in the past two years. He targeted his second serve and began pushing him into positions on the court to put points away with ease. At the end of the match, Djere had only won 42% of the points on his second serve.

Up next is Shelton, who only turned professional around a year ago, but impressively made the last eight in Australia and now the last four in New York. Much of Shelton’s game that has captivated home audiences at the US Open so far is built around the bombs he drops on his first serve – frequently crossing 150 mph – and following them up with big forehands. But he, and any other upcoming opponents including Carlos Alcaraz who could set up another final showdown with Djokovic, would be bleakly aware that as many free points as they may be able to get with big first serves, even marginal inconsistency on that front will be punished by the 23-time Major winner.

Number plate:

64.2% – Djokovic has won nearly two-thirds – 64.2 percent – of the points while returning opponents’ second serve

72% – His tournament-best numbers came against Taylor Fritz in the semifinal on Tuesday, when he won 72 percent of the points on his second serve.

32 – Djokovic has won 32 return games across 17 sets at the US Open so far.