With battle lines clear for 2026, Nitish’s 10th return as CM a reckoning for INDIA amid drift
Barring its common opposition to BJP, INDIA alliance does not have a leader or convener nor a defined structure, nor a clear roadmap or narrative — it stands at a crossroads today
Had Nitish been declared as the convener of the INDIA bloc when it was formed in July 2023, many in the Opposition still believe, the 2024 Lok Sabha poll results might have been different. (PTI Photo) 
Nitish Kumar, who took over as the Bihar Chief Minister for a record 10th time last Thursday, was once seen to have prime ministerial prospects, like Sardar Patel, L K Advani, Pranab Mukherjee or Sharad Pawar, who could not make it to the pinnacle of power.
Had Nitish been declared as the convener of the INDIA bloc when it was formed in July 2023, many in the Opposition still believe, the 2024 Lok Sabha poll results might have been different. That may be wishful thinking but, in private, some of them blame the Congress for blocking Nitish’s projection as the INDIA convener, while others hold Mamata Banerjee responsible for it.
It was Nitish who had initiated the process of uniting the Opposition parties under one umbrella, named the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which he had hoped to lead. Had he not quit this alliance in January 2024 to rejoin the BJP-led NDA, his party JD(U) and the Lalu Prasad-led RJD would have been on the same side in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, which might have opened up the game by bringing down the BJP’s tally further.
Instead, with Nitish by its side, the NDA notched up 30 of 40 Lok Sabha seats as against the INDIA’s 9 in Bihar despite the tide turning in the latter’s favour in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh. The BJP stalled at 240 seats, 32 behind a simple majority, but formed the government for third consecutive time with the support of its NDA allies.
The hits and misses of history often have tantalising, and even wide-ranging, implications. As things turned out, the INDIA bloc’s loss of Nitish led to the NDA’s victory in Bihar, which may not be limited only to it.
Modi threw his weight behind the 2025 Bihar battle and Nitish’s leadership in the state and the mandate was a way of saying “thank you” to the ailing leader in what could possibly be his last election. But the JD (U) may not benefit as much from it as the BJP. If anything, and this is a paradox, it may have left the JD(U) more vulnerable.
While the JD(U) doubled its tally (from 43 seats in 2020 to 85 in 2025), it is the BJP which has emerged as the single largest party, whose tally rose from 74 to 89. The BJP leadership decided to retain Nitish as the CM, given the support and goodwill he still enjoys among women, EBCs and Mahadalits.
The BJP may wait for a suitable moment to install its own leader at the helm of Bihar. Grappling with health issues, Nitish is neither what he used to be, nor has he appointed his successor. The BJP is already playing the lead role in the newly formed government, with a major section of the JD(U) leadership, including some of Nitish’s close aides, already moving in step with the BJP brass.
The optics of Prime Minister enthusiastically waving his “gamchha” from the stage at Nitish’s swearing-in ceremony at Patna’s Gandhi Maidan told its own story. So did the decision to allot the Home portfolio, held by CM Nitish for 20 years, to Samrat Choudhary, who has been reappointed as the Deputy CM and is being groomed by the BJP for a bigger role in the future.
A crucial bearing of the new Nitish government is going to be on the INDIA alliance, which allowed him to return to the NDA even though some of its leaders had sought steps to be taken to hold him back.
Even before the dust has settled on the NDA’s sweep in Bihar, the PM, in his victory speech, upped the ante against the Congress— urging the regional parties not to “drown” in the Congress’s “negative politics” but to distance themselves from it. The Congress, he said, was a ”parasite” which would swallow the vote banks of its allies. He was playing on the regional parties’ concerns, who have grown at the Congress’s expense and fear its revival. He also predicted a split in the Congress.
This was a curious note to strike when the Congress was down and out, even as the BJP’s Bihar landslide followed the party’s runaway success in the elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi.
The PM however lost no time in warning the regional players about the Congress. For there are some states due for elections in 2026, where the non-BJP parties have a strong presence—in TMC-ruled West Bengal, in DMK-ruled Tamil Nadu, and in Left-ruled Kerala, where the Congress stands a good chance even though both sides are part of the INDIA bloc.
But it is Bengal that the BJP is especially eyeing now. Will Mamata, who did not go in for an alliance with the Congress in 2021, rethink her strategy for 2026 in order to consolidate her Muslim base? After all, Muslim votes got divided in Bihar, with a section of the community backing the Asaddudin Owaisi-led AIMIM, which won 5 seats in the Seemanchal region.
A Samajwadi Party activist recently said that the INDIA bloc’s leadership should be given to party chief Akhilesh Yadav, although the latter dismissed the suggestion. Akhilesh told me that for him, the immediate, and more important, task for the INDIA leaders, would be: “(Pehle) apne apne states ko bachana hai…we have to save our states. I can tell you, in UP, it is going to be a ‘badi ladai’ (big fight in the 2027 polls)… The Congress can fight on the seats it can win (in case of an alliance)… In Tamil Nadu, I can stand by M K Stalin and morally support him. I can stand by Mamata Banerjee ji and support her. But I don’t bring anything more to the table in these states.”
Akhilesh was pointing to a fundamental reality about the INDIA alliance, which was formed to take on the Modi-led BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. At the state level, it was the dominant regional party, or the Congress, which decided who to ally with. It was a bilateral arrangement, and had little to do with the multi-party grouping—except for the moral support that one leader gave to another.
Today, with the formidable challenge being posed by the BJP, the INDIA leaders need, above all, to retain their states or wrest them from the BJP in poll-bound states in 2026, and then in 2027 (UP, Gujarat and Punjab).
And yet, 2026 may be a year that could belong to the INDIA parties if they could get their act together. They will have to build up a common narrative which could create a resonance on issues concerning people. The Congress has planned a major campaign over alleged “vote chori” and the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, but other INDIA partners are not convinced about it.
As of now, barring its common opposition to the BJP, the INDIA alliance does not have a leader or convener nor a defined structure, nor a clear roadmap or narrative. It stands at a crossroads today—and Nitish’s new stint as the CM has only underlined that it has yet to take off.
(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of ‘How Prime Ministers Decide’)
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