Can Sharad Pawar dig party out of its hole? First challenge, civic polls; next, new cadre

Given the clear majority of the Mahayuti, the only chance the NCP (SP) may get to prove its relevance – and forestall a possible exodus – in the next five years would be the civic elections, which have been due in the state for a while.

In elections held to 27 municipal corporations between 2014 and 2018, the undivided NCP had got 6.95% of the votes. But in semi-urban and rural local bodies, its vote share was as much as 15% and 21% respectively.

A day after the results, Pawar was at the memorial of former chief minister Y B Chavan, his political mentor, in Karad. In his first remarks on the results, the 83-year-old said: “I will not sit idle and will continue to meet people and resolve their issues.” He added that his strategy would include grooming a new generation that believes in “my ideology”.

A close associate of Pawar and NCP (SP) general secretary Jaideo Gaikwad admitted that the party needed a roadmap for the near future as well as going forward. However, he played down the Assembly poll setback saying the NCP (SP) would continue to fight on.

“Anyone can say whatever they want about the future of the NCP (SP) and Pawar. He is very clear he will continue to lead the struggle for the ideology he follows,” said Gaikwad. As per the NCP (SP), this is the ideology of secularism and social equality, as espoused by Chhatrapati Shahu, Mahatma Phule and Babasaheb Ambedkar, and stands in contrast to the BJP’s Hindutva.

Political observer Prakash Pawar, former head of the Political Science department at Shivaji University, said Pawar can always argue that the state elections were not a referendum on him as he himself was not in the race. However, he pointed out, the window for the octogenarian is closing very fast. “Pawar is unlikely to be active in the next general elections, more so because of his age.”

According to sources, the NCP founder is set to focus on first rallying together the 10 MLAs and eight MPs he is left with, apart from the party leaders who lost in the recent elections. As long as he has this numerical strength, his importance in state and national politics cannot be said to have ended, said a source.

The next step, over which talks have already begun, NCP (SP) leaders said, is grooming a rung of new leaders. One reason identified behind the NCP (SP)’s wipeout in the state is the absence of strong candidates in its ranks after the party split.

About the civic polls, Gaikwad said: “While he won’t be directly involved, Pawar will oversee the party performance to help strengthen the base.”

As another source pointed out, Pawar may not have much choice in this as there is no strong leader he can pass on his baton to. Daughter Supriya Sule is more of a Delhi face and has been an MP since she joined politics in 2006. Two family members personally backed by Pawar didn’t perform to his expectations in the recent Assembly polls, with grandnephew Rohit scraping through by 1,243 votes in the Karjat-Jamkhed seat, and grandnephew Yugendra losing by 1 lakh-plus votes to Ajit Pawar in the prestigious seat of Baramati.

Incidentally, during the Assembly election campaign, Pawar had hinted at retirement from parliamentary politics altogether, citing his age. “I had declared in the past that I will not contest any general elections and now will think whether to continue in the Rajya Sabha after the present term,” he had said.

The irony is that while the NCP (SP) might now find it hard to send him back to the Rajya Sabha when he retires in 2026, Pawar may want to hold on to some national presence to keep his party afloat.

NCP leader Pradeep Deshmukh said the united party’s strength was always western Maharashtra and small pockets across the state. “The Assembly elections show that voters have rejected the NCP (SP) and are behind our leader Ajit Pawar. They will continue to support the party that can ensure their progress,” he said, claiming that many NCP (SP) leaders are ready to switch sides.

It was wrong to forecast the end of the Maha Vikas Aghadi by one election alone, countered state Congress spokesperson Anant Gadgil, pointing out that the situation was completely different just five months ago in the Lok Sabha elections. However, Gadgil admitted, a lot rests on the civic polls. “I hope we improve our performance,” he said, calling for “proper seat-sharing and coordination” between the alliance partners.

A Shiv Sena (UBT) leader, who did not want to be quoted, said it was not the party’s place to tell the NCP (SP) anything as they were in the same boat, but that a rethink on the coalition had begun. “We have nothing against alliance partners, but in the long run, a party should have strong cadre, which can only be activated if the civic elections are contested independently,” he said.