Like in 2019, the simultaneous elections in Odisha this time will be held in four phases, with the only difference this time being that the state will vote in the last four of the seven phases, unlike last time when it voted in the first four phases. That Odisha will go to the polls almost a month after the general elections begin will give the BJP some more time to campaign and gain whatever advantage it can, according to BJP insiders. But that may not be enough given that five years ago Odisha witnessed split voting, with the ruling BJD winning the Assembly polls comfortably and the electorate giving the BJP a handsome lead in the Lok Sabha polls. The BJD led by Naveen Patnaik had won a majority of the Lok Sabha and Assembly seats since breaking ties with the BJP in 2009 and contesting alone. But last time, the regional party failed to repeat its 2009 and 2014 success in the parliamentary elections. It, however, continued winning the state elections. “Given that every Lok Sabha constituency in Odisha comprises seven Assembly segments and there were simultaneous polls, the BJP could have won at least 40 to 45 seats in 2019. The voting pattern indicated the political maturity of the voters of the state. If multiple survey reports are anything to go by, we expect a similar voting pattern in the coming polls as well,” said a senior BJP leader. Seats and vote shares Of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha, the BJD’s tally reduced to 12 in 2019 — it was 20 in 2014 and 14 in 2009 — while the BJP’s tally jumped from one in 2014 to eight. The Opposition party swept western Odisha by winning all five seats in the region and bagged three others in northern and coastal pockets. The Congress that had drawn a blank in 2014 won the Koraput seat, where the party has a sound base. Overall, there was a sharp jump in the BJP’s Lok Sabha vote share from 21.9% in 2014 to 38.9%. The BJD’s vote share dipped marginally, with the party securing 43.3% of the votes compared to 44.8% in 2014. Post-poll data analysis showed that the BJP’s vote share increased at the cost of the Congress, which fell from over 26% in 2014 to 14% in 2019. But the BJP failed to translate its Lok Sabha success in the Assembly polls as the party finished with just 23 seats while the BJD registered a record fifth victory by winning 112 of the 147 constituencies. The Congress was reduced to single digits, with the party’s tally at just nine. The BJP, however, managed to emerge as the principal Opposition in the state, with its Assembly vote share rising to 32.8% from just 18.2% five years earlier. The BJD also increased its vote share, with a 45.2% vote share against 43.9% in 2014. In the Assembly polls too, the Congress faced a setback as its vote share declined to 16.3% from 26% in 2014. The distinct pattern of voting in Odisha was seen throughout the state, with most of the Lok Sabha seats seeing a bipolar fight between the BJD and the BJP. The victory margin was less than one lakh votes in more than 50% of the constituencies. While the Congress was out of race in the majority of the Lok Sabha constituencies, it gave a tough fight to the BJD only in Nabarangpur, a tribal-dominated constituency. In 2019, the BJP managed to wrest the Bhubaneswar Lok Sabha seat for the first time. The BJD had held the constituency since 1998. The BJP’s Aparajita Sarangi, an IAS-turned-politician defeated BJD candidate and former Mumbai police commissioner Arup Patnaik. Sarangi secured 48.4% votes compared to Patnaik’s 46.1% vote share. In 2014, the BJP managed to get only 28% votes against BJD’s 49.3% votes. However, the party failed to win a single Assembly seat in the parliamentary constituency, with six going to the BJD and one to the Congress. With the BJP surge in mind, especially in west Odisha since the 2017 panchayat polls, Naveen Patnaik, for the first time, contested from the region. Apart from his traditional bastion Hinjli, the CM also contested the Assembly polls from Bijepur that comes under the Bargarh Lok Sabha seat. The idea was to arrest BJP’s growth in the region and help the party to win maximum Assembly seats. Though Patnaik’s move helped the BJD in the Assembly polls – the party won all seven Assembly segments in Bargarh – the voters elected BJP’s Suresh Pujari in the Lok Sabha.
