THE Met department today forecast a normal monsoon for the upcoming June-September rainfall season,predicting 99 per cent of average seasonal rainfall during this period. In its preliminary forecast,the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said three out of the five parameters that are considered for the forecast were positive for a good monsoon and there was a 47 per cent probability that the rainfall in the four-month period would be normal. Normal in monsoon terminology corresponds to rainfall that is between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the average seasonal rainfall. India receives 89 cm of rainfall on an average during this period. Additionally,there was a 24 per cent chance that the rainfall would be between 90 and 96 per cent of the average (below normal in forecast terminology). What this means is that there is a very high probability we will have a good monsoon this year too, weather forecaster D Sivananda Pai said. The only cause of concern is that many forecasting models have been showing that weak El Nino conditions which are a measure of the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and known to adversely affect the monsoon are likely to develop in the latter half of the season. As of now,it is in neutral condition but there is a weak probability that El Nino might develop towards the latter half. We will have to wait to see whether it will have any impact on the rainfall, Pai said. If the forecast turns out to be correct,this will be the third straight year of good rainfall in this season. Good rains during this period is absolutely vital for the agricultural output and the main driver of the economy. Todays forecast does not predict the regional distribution of the rainfall. That is announced in June when the Met department updates this forecast.
