On Naveen Patnaik’s turf, a former confidant tries to deal a blow to BJD

The constituency, which falls within Ganjam, the home district of Odisha Chief Minister and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) supremo Naveen Patnaik, is heading for a high-stakes battle on May 13 with expelled BJD leader Pradeep Panigrahy, once a close confidant of Patnaik, contesting on a BJP ticket.

Even though the BJD has won the seat since 2009, Panigrahy’s entry into the fray and the BJP’s recent rise in the constituency has made it a prestige battle for the BJD to retain the seat. Panigrahy, a three-time former MLA from Gopalpur who also looked after Patnaik’s Hinjili Assembly constituency for more than a decade, understands the nitty-gritty of Ganjam’s politics.

To take on Panigrahy, the BJD too has chosen a turncoat – Bhrugu Baxipatra, formerly of the BJP who had contested the seat as the saffron party’s nominee in 2019 and finished second with a 35.25% vote share. Notwithstanding his “outsider” tag given he is a native of Jeypore in Koraput district, according to his election affidavit, Baxipatra is banking heavily on the BJD’s robust organisational strength and Patnaik’s popularity in the region.

“Ganjam is CM’s home district. People here are emotionally connected to the BJD. There may be resentment for some reasons but, by and large, people are satisfied with the state government. We are confident because of our strength on the ground,” said Sangram Nayak, a local BJD leader from the Chikiti Assembly segment in Berhampur.

Though the state’s ruling BJD is playing up the multiple forgery and corruption charges against Panigrahy, dubbing him “anti-people”, this line of attack is not catching on with voters.

“I don’t want to comment whether he has done corruption or cheated people as it’s up to the court to decide. Nobody can be ‘anti-people’ just because some political party termed him so. I will vote for the BJP this time because of PM Modi and his government’s work in the past 10 years,” said Niranjan Patra, who was selling ice-cream near Modi’s rally ground at Berhampur’s Kanisi on May 6.

Buoyed by its growing vote share over the last Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, the BJP central leadership has been pushing hard to wrest the seat from the BJD.

“Whatever votes the BJP got in 2019 in Berhampur is because of the popularity of Narendra Modi since Bhrugu was a new face here. There is a strong undercurrent in favour of the BJP,” a senior BJP leader said.

Besides Modi, BJP national president J P Nadda also campaigned for Panigrahy while Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh had visited the constituency in February.

In 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP’s vote share in Berhampur was 6.54% and 11.9%, respectively. In 2019, it increased to 35.25%. The BJP also turned the contest here into a bipolar fight in 2019 even though it had finished third in 2009 and 2014. The Congress’s vote fell drastically between 2014 and 2019.

In the seven Assembly segments under the Berhampur Lok Sabha seat – Berhampur, Chhatrapur, Gopalpur, Digapahandi, Chikiti, Paralakhemundi and Mohana – the BJP has gained considerable ground over the past 10 years.

Though the BJP only won Paralakhemundi in the 2019 Assembly polls – with the BJD winning five seats and the Congress one – the saffron party recorded an increase in its vote share from single-digit figures in 2014 to above 25% in Chikiti and Digapahandi. While the BJP already has a strong base in Gopalpur and Mohana, it has improved its presence in urban pockets of Chhatrapur and Berhampur.

Though Modi is the biggest factor behind the BJP’s growth in the region, as the party still lacks organisational machinery, voters are focusing on issues like unemployment leading to large-scale migration, corruption by local BJD leaders and poor infrastructure.

“What facilities are you talking about? They (the BJD) were talking about cheap rice, which is also being sent by the Centre. Local BJD leaders are demanding bribes for everything – sanctioning a house under PM Awas Yojana, adding names for the pension scheme and issuing a ration card,” said Natha Sahu of Tikarpada in the Digapahandi Assembly seat.

However, the BJP’s weak booth-level organisation may hamper its winning prospects. The BJD’s well-oiled machinery in every booth allows the party to mobilise voters on polling day.

“Maybe this could be the reason why the PM, during his rally on May 6, appealed to BJP workers to win the booths by motivating maximum people to come out to vote,” the BJP leader said.