Nagaland election result takeaways: NDPP-BJP tightens grip, NPF slides, state gets its first woman MLAs

1. In the final count, the NDPP won 25 seats and the BJP 12, putting the only pre-poll alliance in the state in a position to comfortably form the next government. This also marks an improvement in the alliance’s performance since the last election, when the two parties jointly won 29 constituencies. This appears to largely be on account of the NDPP’s growth at the expense of the Naga People’s Front (NPF). The NDPP’s vote share has grown from 25.3 per cent in the last election to 32.2 per cent this time. After a sharp rise in its footprint in Nagaland in the last election, the BJP’s performance this time more or less plateaued. Like last time, the party won 12 seats but its vote share increased from 15.31 per cent to 18.8 per cent.

In a press conference on Thursday evening, NDPP General Secretary Abu Metha suggested that the party could seek to leverage its increased seat count to negotiate for a greater say in government formation.

“In so far as the composition and formation of the next government is concerned, and looking at the experience of the past five years, we are of the view that the composition and the formation needs to be looked afresh and a new approach has to be made,” he said.

2. While the NPF was in a difficult position ahead of these elections, its performance was poorer than most observers might have expected. The party that led the state government for 15 years and has won the most seats in an Assembly election managed to bag only two seats this time. In a huge relief to the NPF, the party’s second-in-command Kuzholuzo Nienu returned from the brink of a near loss to win from his constituency Phek by just 48 votes. The party also managed to pull off a huge upset in Bhandari constituency where the BJP’s national spokesperson and incumbent MLA Mmhonlumo Kikon lost to the NPF’s Achumbembo Kikon. However, despite this small victory, the road ahead looks difficult for this former powerhouse and the oldest regional party in the state. It recorded a 7.1 per cent vote share, a huge drop from 38.78 per cent five years ago.

3. The Congress again failed to open its account. Like in 2018, it failed to win a single seat though it improved its vote share slightly from 1.07 per cent in 2018 to 3.55 per cent. Pradesh Congress Committee president K Therie lost from Dimapur I constituency. The last time he won an election in the state was 20 years ago in 2003 as part of the NPF.

4. Significantly, the wins by both of NDPP’s women candidates scripted history in the state and Nagaland will get its first women MLAs in Hekani Jakhalu and Salhoutuonuo Kruse. In a state where women’s political representation has been deeply contested with violent protests erupting in 2017 when the government tried to introduce 33 per cent reservation for women in urban local body polls, this is a significant breakthrough for women in the state’s political arena.