Just before the state elections in Uttar Pradesh last year, a senior BJP leader told me that the party brass was not worried so much about the unhappiness of Jats after the farmers’ agitation. The historical Muslim-Jat divide in western UP would take care of that when it came to the crunch — and it did to a large extent. What they were worried about was retaining the support of Other Backward Classes (OBCs). That concern continues to shape the ruling party’s strategy for 2024. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement of a Vishwakarma Yojana in his Independence Day address is a significant straw in the wind. The BJP knows it may not be able to get the backing of the larger and more powerful OBC groups such as Yadavs (Lalu Prasad, Tejashawi Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav) and Kurmis (Nitish Kumar and Bhupesh Baghel) in north India. It is going all out now to consolidate the support of the many small, but numerically large, backward groups such as the Lohar, Barhai, Kahar, Nai, and Dhobi. Though definitive numbers are not available, the smaller OBCs could comprise up to almost 30% of the population. The divide between the artisan OBCs and the more powerful kisan OBCs (Yadavs and Kurmis) who acquired land and political power after land reforms and the adoption of the Mandal Commission report in 1990 is not new. There was, in fact, a dissenting note in the Mandal report that there was no way that the artisan OBCs could compete with the kisan OBCs. According to data available till 2018, only 10 OBC communities bagged 97% of the reserved government jobs meant for the community. And as many as 983 OBC communities (out of 2,600) received no representation at all in government jobs. The Narendra Modi government set up the G Rohini Commission in 2017 to categorise the OBCs into sub-groups — to ensure that it was not just the dominant groups, like Yadavs and Kurmis, which benefitted from the policy of reservations. After 13 extensions, the Rohini Commission finally submitted the report to President on July 31. The recommendations of the report have not been made public yet and could become a factor in 2024 if the report’s contents are made public before the Lok Sabha elections. The demand for a caste-based census in Bihar — the Supreme Court is currently hearing petitions challenging a Patna High Court order allowing the survey — is also a live issue, with the Opposition raising the demand. OBCs suspect their number may be larger than the 52% enumerated in the 1931 Census. This will make them bigger beneficiaries of political power and economic gain. For all the rising aspirations in the India of 2023, job reservations still remain an emotive issue. Remember how a statement by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat questioning the policy of reservations during the 2015 Bihar elections led to the victory of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad. The BJP has for some time eyed the support of the artisan castes or the Most Backward Castes (MBCs). It is now readying its ammunition to reach out to them with a renewed vigour. The Prime Minister made a point of emphasising that the Vishwakarma Yojana would help traditional craftsmen “particularly from the OBC community”. The Cabinet has already cleared the ambitious Rs 13,000 crore scheme, expected to help 30 lakh artisan families, who will also have access to easy loans. The idea, said a political leader, is clearly to put money “directly in the hands of these people” and win them over. While Indira Gandhi went for macro strokes with her call for “garibi hatao (remove poverty)” or for bank nationalisation or doing away with the privileges of the princes, her rhetoric was geared towards firming up the support of specific communities on the ground — Dalits, Muslims and Brahmins. There will be the optics of the BJP’s poll campaign, with the world’s top leaders beating a path to Delhi for the G-20 summit being hosted by Modi or with the opening of the temple in Ayodhya next January, showcasing strongman Modi’s success in having got it built when his predecessors put it on the back burner. ”For all you know,” remarked a political wag, ”Modi might help in the building of the mosque in Ayodhya for which land has been given. Or invite the Pope to visit India soon to give a suitable signal to unhappy minorities.” All agree that he is likely to pull rabbits out of the hat. He has already set out the poll themes for the BJP’s campaign — a fight against “corruption, family rule, and appeasement”. Behind the grand sweeps Modi is making, he is eyeing the support of the upper castes and the MBCs, as well as a section of tribals and Dalits. He is also hoping to dent the Muslim vote, however marginally, by reaching out to the backward Pasmanda Muslims. Almost a quarter century after Mandal (affirmative action for the OBCs), the idea continues to hold sway as power devolves to communities that have been on the margins. As it should in a parliamentary democracy where numbers matter, communities should demand their share of the pie. Instead of Mandal being pitted against Kamandal as in the past, Narendra Modi has managed to imbue his politics with both caste and religion. He is an OBC and is seen as a Hindu Hriday Samrat (ruler of Hindu hearts). The Vishwakarma Yojana is about the smaller castes but is named after their presiding deity seen by many of them as the son of Brahma. While Mandal and Kamandal continue to play out again, it is one of the ironies of our politics that the father of Mandal — Vishwanath Pratap Singh — is a forgotten prime minister. I often ask groups of younger people in different parts of the country about the PMs they have heard of. It is invariably “yes” to Nehru, Shastri, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi. But most have not heard of V P Singh, not even young men who are OBCs and have benefitted from job reservations. The reason: the OBC constituency he courted did not own him but turned to their own caste leaders. And yet his Mandal decision has defined governments that followed him — as is evident from the Modi government’s latest outreach. (Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 10 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of the recently published How Prime Ministers Decide)
