When the National Conference’s Mian Altaf won his first parliamentary election on Tuesday against the Peoples Democratic Party's (PDP's) Mehbooba Mufti in the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, he continued his winning streak. Altaf, a Sufi pir revered by the Gujjar community across J&K, has so far never lost an election. He has been elected five times to the J&K Assembly. He won on Tuesday by a margin of over 2.80 lakh votes against a leader of the stature of Mufti. For Mufti, a second consecutive defeat — she had lost Anantnag (as it was called before delimitation) in 2019 — brings significant challenges. There is the question of the PDP’s future in the politics of J&K, as well as the efforts needed to keep the party cadre together. It also remains to be seen what effect these parliamentary elections will have on the party’s performance in the Assembly polls. Mufti has previously represented the Anantnag parliamentary constituency twice: 2004 and 2014. Although Anantnag was previously considered a Mufti family bastion, delimitation significantly changed the geographical and demographic makeup of the constituency. The addition of Rajouri and Poonch and the carving out of Pulwama and parts of Shopian from the Anantnag seat appear to have impacted the results. The way the delimitation had been carried out had attracted criticism primarily due to the shifting out of Kashmiri voters from the constituency and the addition of Gujjar and Pahari voters to the mix. This compounded problems for the PDP, as it does not have a traditional base among these two communities. The NC strategically identified Altaf for the seat, hoping to consolidate the Gujjar votes. That seemed to have worked out as Altaf polled over 5 lakh votes on Tuesday. Additionally, the baggage of the PDP’s coalition with the BJP in the J&K Assembly polls in 2014 seems to have further pulled it down. Even during the 2019 Lok Sabha campaign, many PDP workers had questioned Mufti over the decision. These elections, the first major ones after the abrogation of Article 370, saw a pronounced sentiment in the Valley to defeat any parties carrying any association with the BJP. In its campaign, the PDP argued that it had already paid its dues over the coalition with the BJP, having become “the primary target” of the Centre, with 40 of its former MLAs joining the Altaf Bukhari-led J&K Apni Party. The Apni Party is seen to be a "proxy" of the BJP in the Valley. During the campaign, a majority of the PDP leadership anticipated the party's wipeout in the Valley, qualifying their attempts as primarily aimed at cadre-building for the Assembly elections. Now, the party will be invested in keeping its flock together and finding suitable candidates at least for the 47 seats in the Valley.
