Why Maharashtra Speaker’s non-disqualification of any MLA is a win-win for BJP

Another perceived positive in the Speaker’s verdict for the BJP was the recognition of the faction led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde as the real Shiv Sena. Narwekar, while dismissing 34 related petitions from both sides, ruled in Shinde’s favour, citing that a majority of the MLAs had sided with his faction when the party split in June 2022.

The disqualification of Sena (UBT) MLAs, sources said, would have put the BJP in a bad light and allowed Uddhav Thackeray to play the victim card in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. Moreover, the Shiv Sena is a party that thrives on emotions and the disqualification of Uddhav’s legislators would have garnered more public sympathy for him.

Surveys by the BJP and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) suggest Uddhav has garnered sympathy after the split and the subsequent fall of the MVA government led by him. To add to this, he also lost the party name and symbol after the Election Commission (EC) ruled in Shinde’s favour. A source said the sympathy has increased as people believe the split and its consequences were engineered by the BJP.

“The Thackerays are the core of the emotion that binds the Sena. Any injustice to them resonates with supporters and cadre. Had Narwekar disqualified Sena (UBT) MLAs, Uddhav would have got an opportunity to further encash on the sympathy that he has garnered. More often than not, sympathy for the Sena has translated into votes,” the source said.

However, the source pointed out that Uddhav can still play the sympathy card as the Speaker has ruled that the Sena led by Shinde is the real party.

They also say the Sena (UBT) moving the Supreme Court just ahead of the verdict also would play in his favour as he can seek votes from people claiming injustice to the party. Uddhav had moved the apex court over Narwekar’s meeting with Shinde just ahead of the disqualification verdict claiming it was like “the judge meeting the accused’.

MVA partners slam verdict in unison

On expected lines, Narwekar’s verdict has been attacked by the Sena (UBT) and the other MVA partners. Uddhav on Wednesday said the verdict is not final and that his party would approach the Supreme Court. “The real battle would be fought on the electoral field,” he said.

The party’s Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut termed the Speaker as a leader of the BJP and accused him of acting as a lawyer of the Shinde-led Sena. “This is a conspiracy of the BJP as it dreams of finishing the Shiv Sena of Balasaheb (Thackeray). The order is not in accordance with law or the Constitution. We do not accept it. The Speaker received the order copy from Delhi (BJP),” he said and added that the verdict marked a black day for “the Marathi community”.

State Congress chief Nana Patole said Narwekar’s judgment is unconstitutional and undemocratic. “It is against party rules, he (Speaker) accepted the real Shiv Sena Constitution was the 1999 one yet did not disqualify any MLAs… We have faith in the Supreme Court… Democracy is in danger and BJP will face problems due to this judgement,” he said.

NCP patriarch Sharad Pawar too slammed the verdict. “This is not a judicial order but a political one. This order has created a great case for Uddhav Thackeray in the Supreme Court. We will take this to the people of Maharashtra,” he said.

Probable impact of Shinde Sena MLAs’ disqualification

On the other hand, had the Shinde faction MLAs been disqualified, the BJP would have been left red-faced as its ally would have faced the hammer. Analysts say their disqualification would also have sent out a message that the Shinde-led rebellion was unconstitutional and hence the government that it was a part of was illegal. The BJP would have faced a loss of face in the state and across the country.

The disqualification of Shinde faction MLAs, though would not have had any bearing on the stability of the state government as the BJP and NCP (Ajit Pawar) have the numbers. However, it could have set a precedent for split in parties and the same decision could have applied to the Ajit Pawar faction, which had broken away from the NCP in July last year and currently faces disqualification petitions.

Sources said that in the run-up to the verdict, the Sena (UBT) was aware that the disqualification of MLAs from either faction would put the BJP in a spot and hence had moved the Supreme Court seeking expedition of the process.

“The Sena (UBT) managed to create much-needed pressure on the Speaker through various platforms like the Supreme Court and frequent statements in the media. The legal battle forced the Speaker to give the verdict on January 10, just a couple of months ahead of the Lok Sabha polls,” the source said.

The BJP hailed the verdict and claimed its stand had been vindicated. “All legal and Constitutional aspects were adequately factored in when the Shinde-led government was formed. It is on a strong footing, but some sections (political rivals) were spreading misinformation. I welcome the Speaker’s verdict and congratulate CM Shinde and his MLAs,” Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said, adding that Uddhav Thackeray does not understand the law.