Fielding all big BJP leaders to ensure a win in at least 10 of Jharkhand’s 28 Scheduled Tribe (ST)-reserved Assembly seats, focusing on the 52 constituencies where the party had a lead in the recent Lok Sabha elections, framing a narrative around “infiltration” and “demographic change” in the Santal Pargana area, and consolidating OBC and Dalit voters apart from its hold over the upper castes. These are the tasks the BJP has set for its leaders ahead of the Jharkhand Assembly elections due in four months, with Assam Chief Minister and the party’s state in-charge Himanta Biswa Sarma directing the strategy, as per sources. The BJP’s other in-charge for the state, Union Agriculture Minister and former Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, has more of an “advisory” role, the leaders said. In the 82-member Jharkhand Assembly (including one nominated member), the BJP currently has 26 MLAs, with three more belonging to its ally All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU). The ruling alliance of the JMM, Congress and RJD together has 47 MLAs. In the Lok Sabha elections, while the BJP managed to win the most seats in Jharkhand, 8 of 14, it could not win any of the five ST-reserved parliamentary constituencies. JMM leader and Chief Minister Hemant Soren is counting on his arrest by the party – he is out on bail currently – to build on the tribal support for him, in the Assembly elections. According to a high-level source, their interactions with Sarma show he means business. And he is telling the party that if it doesn’t do enough to win Jharkhand now, “it will not come to power in the state for another 15 years”. A BJP insider who is a part of the meetings to decide the party poll strategy told The Indian Express that one thing that is being drilled in is that all the big party leaders, particularly tribal faces, would have to contest; the party had put heavyweights in the ring in the Lok Sabha polls too, across states. The BJP holds only two ST-reserved Assembly seats as of now in Jharkhand. “Former Union minister Arjun Munda, former MPs such as Geeta Koda, Sunil Soren and Sudarshan Bhagat as well as Shibu Soren’s daughter-in-law Sita… all may run for the Assembly elections. Former Ranchi mayor Asha Lakra and BJP state chief Babulal Marandi may also contest. Since there is an anti-BJP sentiment in tribal seats, the idea is to go with the big names and win at least 10 seats. A ticket to them may also influence nearby constituencies, benefiting the BJP,” the leader said. The Narendra Modi government at the Centre has been banking on the tribal vote, having initiated several welfare schemes for them as well as started commemoration of the birthday celebrations of tribal icon Birsa Munda as ‘Janjaatiya Gaurav Diwas’. One of those not too keen on contesting the Assembly polls, sources said, is Arjun Munda, who reportedly has been offered a seat in the Kolhan area instead of his traditional Khunti. In the recent Lok Sabha polls, Munda had suffered a big 1.49-lakh defeat to the Congress candidate from Khunti. Another way the BJP is trying to get tribals on its side is by raising apprehensions that their way of life was under threat due to unchecked “Muslim infiltration” into the tribal-dominated Santhal Pargana area, allegedly encouraged by the ruling Jharkhand alliance. Union Home Minister Amit Shah claimed at a recent public meeting that “infiltrators” were marrying tribal women to corner their land and jobs. Soon after, BJP MP from Godda, Jharkhand, Nishikant Dubey, who often makes controversial statements, demanded a separate Union territory comprising Santhal Pargana and areas of Bengal to check the “menace”. Dubey also promised that if a BJP-led government came to power in Jharkhand, it would table a white paper on the demography of the state. On July 19, Marandi wrote to CM Hemant Soren seeking a Special Investigation Team to probe “the declining population share of Adivasis in Santhal Pargana”. “That day is not far when Santhalis in Santhal Pargana become a minority, and Santhal Parganas loses its identity,” Marandi wrote. A high-level source in the BJP said they had nothing to lose, even if the message alienated the Muslims further without impressing the Adivasis. “The two groups anyway don't vote for us en masse, while a narrative around illegal transfer of land, marriages helps us.” According to this BJP leader, the party campaign may go on to promise laws to stop marriages and land transfer between “infiltrators” and tribals. In a jibe at the INDIA bloc’s “Save the Constitution” refrain against the Modi government during the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP leader said: “We will emulate the Congress’s ‘Samvidhan khatre mein hai (the Constitution is in danger)’ to tell people that ‘Adivasi aur unki zameen, aurtein khatre mein hain (Adivasis, their land and their women are in danger)’. The BJP believes its easiest task now is hanging onto the 52 Assembly segments where it emerged as the largest party in the Lok Sabha elections. Sources point out that people vote differently in the Lok Sabha and state elections, as they have been known to do earlier. A source said that if the BJP fails to repeat the Lok Sabha performance in the 52 seats, the 10 tribal constituencies that it is determined to win would be a plus. “We also need to cater to our core vote bases such as upper castes and OBCs as well as SCs, and for this we will run a campaign showing that the Hemant government has been ‘anti-backwards and anti-Dalits’.” The BJP may have a bit of a problem there as a section of the OBC voters, particularly the Kudmi Mahatos who comprise over 15% of the electorate in Jharkhand, are angry with the party for failing to fulfill their long-standing demand for tribal status. Kudmi voters are known to impact at least 32-35 Assembly seats, while in a few of them, like Silli, Ramgarh, Mandu, Gomia, Dumri and Ichagarh, they are as many as 75% of the population. So far, the BJP has counted on the AJSU to pull its weight as the party is seen as the traditional home of Kudmi Mahatos. However, the rise of a new leader in the form of Jairam Mahato is worrying the party. A BJP source said: “Unlike last time, the AJSU does not have much of a ground to bargain for more seats or to fight elections on its own.” The source added that Assam CM Sarma’s message to them was also to dedicate the coming four months exclusively to the party and the polls, even stop using aides to act as intermediaries. “We have been told, ‘We must attend to the problems of the people ourselves. This will boost confidence among the electorate’.”
