Since 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP’s shrinking footprint in Haryana’s SC seats as Congress makes gains

This time around, while the Congress’s most prominent Dalit leader Kumari Selja has said the party could name a Dalit Chief Minister if it wins the elections, the entry of Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad’s Aazad Samaj Party (ASP) and its alliance with the Dushyant Chautala-led Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) along with the Indian National Lok Dal’s (INLD) alliance with the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) are all factors that could sway the Dalit vote.

2019 Lok Sabha polls: BJP dominance

In the 2019 polls, on its way to winning all the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the BJP won both the SC-reserved constituencies – Ambala and Sirsa – with vote shares and margins exceeding 50% and 3 lakh votes, respectively.

At the Assembly-segment level, the saffron party won 15 of the total 17 SC-reserved segments. The Congress won the remaining two. While the BJP managed a 55.8% vote share across these 17 segments, the Congress trailed far behind at 27.7%.

The BJP’s strong performance in the reserved segments was underlined by its average victory margin of around 44,000 votes, compared to the Congress’s 6,000.

2019 Lok Sabha polls: Performance in SC Assembly segments

The support for the BJP extended across all the 47 Assembly segments in Haryana where the SC population exceeds 20%, which is the average proportion of SCs across Haryana as per the 2011 Census. The BJP finished on top in 44 of the 47 segments, the Congress won two and the JJP one.

Overall, of the 90 Assembly segments in Haryana, the BJP was first in 79 in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, an indicator of its widespread popularity in the elections.

That year, the party won an outright majority in the Lok Sabha with 303 seats.

2019 Assembly polls: BJP slides

Just five months after the Lok Sabha polls, the 2019 Assembly elections saw a reversal.

Not only was the BJP unable to win an outright majority, as it had in the 2014 Assembly polls, the party also saw its tally fall among the 17 SC-reserved seats. The BJP had won nine SC Assembly segments in 2014, improving to 15 in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 Assembly polls, the party dropped to just five, with the Congress winning seven and the JJP four.

Overall, the BJP fell short of a majority and was able to form the government only with the support of 10 JJP MLAs.

In terms of vote share too, the Congress saw a surge, bridging the huge gap between it and the BJP. While the BJP got 33.1% of the votes in the SC segments, the Congress saw a vote share of 30.3%.

The parties’ victory margins also reflected the highly competitive contests in these reserved seats – the BJP won its seats with an average margin of around 17,000 votes, while the Congress won by 12,000 votes. The BJP’s higher average margin of victory in fact came down largely to two seats: Bawal, where it won by a margin of 32,000 votes, and Pataudi, where it won by 37,000 votes. The Congress’s average margin, in contrast, was brought down by extremely tight contests in two seats: Mulana and Kharkhauda, both of which it won by less than 2,000 votes.

2019 Assembly polls: Performance in SC Assembly segments

In the 47 Assembly segments with an SC population over 20%, the BJP’s tally again fell – from 19 in the 2014 Assembly polls and 44 in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls to just 16 in the 2019 Assembly polls. The Congress made substantial gains, winning 15 of these SC-dominated seats, up from 13 in the 2014 Assembly polls and just two in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The JJP also recorded an improvement, winning nine such segments in the 2019 Assembly polls, with the remaining seven going to the others.

2024 Lok Sabha polls: Congress resurgence

Fast forward to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP fell below the majority mark in Parliament. In Haryana, the party lost ground too, losing five of its Lok Sabha seats to the Congress. Notably, the party lost both the SC-reserved seats, Ambala and Sirsa, to the Congress.

Across the 17 SC-reserved Assembly segments, the Congress dominated with wins in 11 segments, up from just two and seven in the 2019 Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, respectively. The BJP fell to just four segments and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), contesting as part of the INDIA bloc with the Congress, won two segments.

In these segments, the Congress’s average vote share surged to 51.3%, while the BJP’s dropped to 41.3%. This time, it was the Congress that recorded the most commanding average winning margin at 26,000 votes, compared to the BJP’s 21,000 votes.

2024 Lok Sabha polls: Performance in SC Assembly segments

Across the 47 Assembly segments with an SC population more than 20%, the BJP’s tally rose marginally to 18, with the Congress surging further ahead to lead in 25 segments, while the AAP won in four segments.

The forthcoming polls are likely to be even more competitive in SC-dominated seats with more parties vying for the Dalit vote. The additions of the INLD-BSP and JJP-ASP alliances besides the Congress’s attempts to consolidate the Dalit vote, particularly after its 2024 Lok Sabha narrative that the BJP sought to change the Constitution and end reservation appeared to resonate among voters, could all play a role in determining the outcomes in SC-dominated seats.