Haryana Assembly poll overview: Showdown between upbeat Congress, new-look BJP in even contest

In the recent Lok Sabha polls, the BJP lost five of the state’s parliamentary seats while the Congress managed to regain five after drawing a blank five years ago. When extrapolated to the Assembly segment level, the BJP had the lead in 44 of the state’s 90 Assembly seats, the Congress led in 42, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) led in four. The Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) did not lead in any Assembly segment.

For the BJP, the ground reality this time is quite different from five years ago. Though the ruling party won all 10 Lok Sabha seats five years ago, months later it tripped up in the Assembly polls as it failed to reach the majority mark of 46 in the Vidhan Sabha. It stopped at 40 — down from 47 in 2014 — as almost the entire Council of Ministers led by then Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar lost. Only Khattar and his Cabinet colleague Anil Vij retained their seats. At least eight ministers lost, including Ram Bilas Sharma (Mahendragarh), Captain Abhimanyu (Narnaund), Om Prakash Dhankar (Badli), Kavita Jain (Sonipat), Krishan Lal Panwar (Israna), Manish Kumar Grover (Rohtak), Krishan Kumar Bedi (Shahbad), and Karan Dev Kamboj (Radaur).

Post-polls, the BJP had to enter into an alliance with Dushyant Chautala-led JJP that won 10 constituencies and formed a coalition government.

Five years down the line, the BJP has already snapped ties with the JJP and replaced Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as CM in a bid to freshen up the government’s public image and beat anti-incumbency. The ruling party has announced a spate of welfare schemes since the Lok Sabha poll setback to win back voters’ favour. The parliamentary polls, meanwhile, breathed a new lease of life into the Congress that is now confident about its chances of ending BJP rule. For the party, containing its infighting and keeping the different factions in line will be a key challenge if it has to return to power.

The AAP, whose campaign is being led by Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann and his Delhi counterpart Arvind Kejriwal’s wife Sunita, has announced it will contest all 90 seats. The Abhay Chautala-led INLD and the Gopal Kanda-led Haryana Lokhit Party, which has announced its support for the BJP, are two small parties that will be in the fray. The INLD has announced its tie-up with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

“It is not me or anybody else but the people of Haryana who are thanking the Election Commission for announcing the Assembly polls because they do not want to tolerate this non-performing BJP government even for a single day,” Bhupinder Singh Hooda told The Indian Express. “As far as the Congress is concerned, we are fully prepared. We shall soon be announcing our candidates. The Congress is going to form the government with absolute majority … It is going to be a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP.”

State BJP president Mohan Lal Badoli, who was appointed to the post last month, said, “In 2019, we won 40 seats after getting 37% of the votes and this rose to 46% in the Lok Sabha polls in 2024. We only need two more per cent to form the government in Haryana once again.”

The JJP has been a divided house since its 10 MLAs deserted Dushyant Chautala and sided either with the BJP or the Congress. “The JJP is ready to go all out in the polls,” said Dushyant.