How rural votes in Delhi deserted AAP, brought about its exit from power

The BJP’s rural dominance matched its performance in urban areas, where of the 52 seats, the BJP won 35. The AAP got 17.

Most of Delhi’s rural seats are concentrated on the outskirts of Delhi, falling largely in the North West and South West districts. As far as population goes, the national capital is almost entirely urban, at 97.5% of its numbers as per the 2011 Census.

In 2015, when it won 67 of Delhi’s 70 seats, the AAP had swept all the 18 rural seats. It followed this up in 2020 by winning 17, as part of its 62-seat sweep of the Capital.

In 2013, when the AAP first entered the Delhi electoral race, and the Assembly was a hung contest, the BJP had won 13 of the rural seats, with two each going to the AAP and Congress, and one to an Independent.

While the BJP dominated rural seats this time, going by vote shares, the contest was much tighter. At 44.68%, the BJP got slightly lesser votes than its overall vote share, at 45.56%, while the AAP at 43.03% got almost the same votes as overall. The Congress had more votes here, at 7.01%, than its overall vote share.

In 2015, the AAP had a 56.23% vote share in rural seats, in comparison, far ahead of the BJP’s at 31.07% and the Congress’s at 7.86%. In 2020, the AAP declined to 52.93%, while the BJP saw a rise to 37.93%. The Congress, though, fell further to 3.83%.

Among the notable contests in the rural seats this time were those in Bijwasan and the Scheduled Caste-reserved Madipur. In Bijwasan, the BJP’s Kailash Gahlot emerged victorious ahead of the AAP’s Surender Bhardwaj. Gahlot, a former Cabinet minister in the outgoing AAP government and two-time Najafgarh MLA, had quit to join the BJP three months ago.

In Madipur, the AAP’s Deputy Speaker Rakhi Birla suffered defeat at the hands of the BJP’s Kailash Gangwal. A three-time Mangol Puri MLA, Birla was fielded from Madipur this time.

In urban seats, too, the vote share battle was close. The BJP secured 46.34% of the votes, more than its overall share, with the AAP close behind at 43.8%, at almost the same as its overall vote share. The Congress at 6.05% also got almost the same votes as its overall share.