Voters grew dissatisfied with AAP govt, not many believed it was all LG’s ‘fault’

Centre’s performance overshadows AAP’s work

While two in five voters (42%) said they were fully satisfied with the Central government’s work, just over a quarter (28%) expressed full satisfaction with the AAP’s performance in Delhi. Even when considering those who were fully or somewhat satisfied, the AAP lagged behind the BJP by 13 percentage points (Table 1).

Table 1: Comparing satisfaction — AAP government in Delhi vs BJP-led Centre.

Compared to the 2020 Assembly elections, where three-fourth (76%) expressed overall satisfaction with the AAP government, this represented a significant decline.

However, though the Central government was rated more positively, when asked whose work had a greater impact on their voting decision, over two in five voters cited the state government, while just over a quarter mentioned the Centre. This indicates that a higher proportion of Delhiites based their vote on the AAP’s performance rather than comparing it to the BJP-led NDA at the Centre (Table 2).

Table 2: State vs Centre — Whose work had more impact on vote choice?

The data also highlights that the AAP struggled to attract voters beyond its fully satisfied voter base, losing not only dissatisfied but also partially satisfied voters to the BJP (Table 3).

Table 3: Overall satisfaction with state government and vote choice.

This shift in voter sentiment would have played a crucial role in the AAP’s overall defeat.

Public infrastructure: A mixed verdict

There were mixed views when it came to satisfaction with public infrastructure over the past five years. On a positive note, over four in five voters (83%) felt there had been improvement in power supply, and over three in five (64%) said there was improvement in government schools. Additionally, more than half of the voters noted improvements in government hospitals, reflecting progress in key sectors (Table 4).

Table 4: Public perception of infrastructure changes over last five years.

However, in other areas, significant concerns were raised. Half of the voters raised the “worsening” condition of sewer drains, while close to half (47%) reported “deteriorating” road conditions. Drinking water supply was another issue, with four in 10 voters voicing dissatisfaction.

Overall, although certain sectors showed positive developments during the AAP tenure, many others faced significant challenges, leading to setbacks in voter satisfaction. This possibly accounts for the AAP being able to retain a fair vote share and at least 22 seats.

The AAP government often accused the Lieutenant Governor of interfering in its work, but voter opinions on the issue were mixed. Around three in 10 voters felt the LG was obstructing the government’s efforts, but a similar proportion believed the AAP was using this as an excuse for its lack of progress. The response represented in important ways the polarisation of voters on party lines.

Incumbent government: Pros and cons for voters

In the 2020 Assembly elections, seven in 10 Delhi voters wanted the AAP re-elected. This figure dropped to five in 10 voters in the current elections, signalling a clear shift in public sentiment.

The top reasons cited by those who wanted to re-elect the AAP government in these elections were that the government performed well (24%), followed by its policies and schemes, and the provision of quality amenities (both at 20%). A quarter of voters appreciated the party’s focus on the welfare of the poor and middle class and its contribution to the development of Delhi (Table 5).

Table 5: Reasons for giving incumbent government another chance.

Conversely, those who did not want to see the AAP return to power cited corruption as the primary reason (25%). Around two in 10 voters simply needed a change. Other concerns included bad governance and rising unemployment, each cited by about one in 10 voters.

Although in smaller proportions, concerns about poor road conditions and transport infrastructure, the provision of “too many free services”, the lack of economic growth and inflation also influenced voters’ decision to oppose the party’s re-election (Table 6).

Table 6: Reasons for not giving incumbent government another chance.

While the AAP may have won public trust in the past through its welfare policies, this alone proved insufficient this time. Governance, corruption, unemployment and infrastructure concerns seem to have outweighed welfare benefits.

Attri is a researcher at Lokniti-CSDS.